Appwiza · NFL

NFL qualifying matchups

Method-qualified selections with a second-stage 2026 deep audit using coaching context, preseason refinements and games already played.

Updated: Oct 06, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET0 actionable · 0 refined veto · 0 stale suppressed
Overall record1-4
Win rate20.0%
Tracked ROI-100.0%
Net units-4.00u
Actionable now0
NFL Research Lab

Shadow methods, holdout performance, veto research and consensus signals live separately from the official tracker.

Open Research Lab →
2026 deep audit

Coaching + current-season context

Scanner qualification is no longer the final word.

This layer adds coaching turnover/quality, validated preseason refinements, authoritative game identity, and 2026 performance already played. A validated veto can move an older scanner-qualified pick out of the actionable board.

Fresh context
SelectionDeep auditCoaching contextPreseason2026 evidence
Ravensvs NO · W2 · -375KEEPPasses the refined preseason gate and current-season evidence is directionally supportive.Jesse Minter / Declan Doyle / Anthony Weaver3 changes · mean 0.648 · min 0.4843-0 / PASS1-0 · margin +18.0Pass EPA +10.34 · Rush EPA +6.66 · CPOE +4.80
Saintsvs LV · W3 · -185NO BETRefined veto: selected team did not reach the validated 2+ preseason-win requirement.Kellen Moore / Doug Nussmeier / Brandon Staleystable · mean 0.455 · min 0.1881-2 / FAIL0-1 · margin -1.0Pass EPA -1.01 · Rush EPA -1.66 · CPOE -1.21
Titansvs NYJ · W1 · -375Not actionableAuthoritative schedule says this row is completed, stale, or needs identity review.Robert Saleh / Brian Daboll / Gus Bradley3 changes · mean 0.397 · min 0.2972-1 / PASS—Current-season efficiency: —

Week 1–3 performance is supporting context only. Mature rolling-stat methods still require at least three completed games. Coach-quality scores use only seasons before 2026.

Current board

Available selections

No actionable selections after the current deep-audit filters.
Tracked results

Completed selections

One unit per tracked selection at the original recorded moneyline. Pending results are excluded from ROI.

DatePickMatchupMethodPriceResultP/L
Sep 27, 2026SaintsRaiders at SaintsM1, M2—LOSS-1.00u
Sep 20, 2026BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersM1, M2—LOSS-1.00u
Sep 20, 2026RavensSaints at RavensM1—LOSS-1.00u
Sep 13, 2026ChargersCardinals at ChargersM1, M2—LOSS-1.00u
Sep 13, 2026EaglesWAS at EaglesM3—WIN—
Method Key · NFL

Live M-methods can create official selections. H-series methods are researched and prospectively tracked but remain separate from the live tracker until explicitly promoted.

Live methods
M1
Home opener · Run defense + enriched fail-closed gate

Top-10 prior-season run defense, prior-season record at least .500, 2+ preseason wins, and the validated enriched M1 veto must be available and pass. Missing enriched data = no bet.

LIVE / PRODUCTION
M2
Home opener · .500 record + larger edge

Prior-season record at least .500, top-10 prior run defense, 2+ preseason wins, and a winning-percentage advantage greater than 12.5 points. M2 is independent of the M1 enriched veto.

LIVE / PRODUCTION
M3
Week 1 · Defense + offense filter

Week 1 home opener with prior-season pass defense top 10, sack/QB-hit rank top 16, and offense rank 24 or better.

LIVE / PRODUCTION
M4
Late season · Away favorite

Week 11+ away favorite with a large pass-defense edge, strong OL continuity and a validated price/protection/rest gate.

LIVE / PRODUCTION
H-series research / shadow methods
H002
Explosive defense + punt returns

Road underdogs combining explosive-play defense and recent punt-return edge; includes a dome veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H003
Third down + pass rush

Road underdogs with third-down and sack/QB-hit edges; includes a pass-defense EPA veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H008
Third down + kick returns

Underdogs combining third-down edge with a recent kick-return average advantage.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H017
Pass rush + explosive defense

Road underdogs combining recent pressure with explosive-play defense; includes a travel veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H027
Punt returns + efficiency

Road underdogs with a strong punt-return edge plus recent success-rate edge; includes a DC-tenure veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H029
Pass-rush defense edge

Road underdogs with a large defensive sack/QB-hit rank edge; includes a punt-return veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H033
Punt return edge

Road underdogs driven by a large recent punt-return average edge.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H036
Explosive + pass defense

Road underdogs with strong explosive-play and pass-EPA defensive edges; includes a travel veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 4+
H005
Third down + offense EPA

Underdogs combining third-down edge with a strong offensive EPA/play rank edge; includes an OC-experience veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 7+
H010
Third down + passing EPA

Road underdogs combining third-down edge with a strong passing-EPA rank edge; includes a DC-context veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 7+
H028
Pass rush + passing EPA

Road underdogs combining recent pressure and passing-EPA edge; includes a time-zone/travel veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 7+
H035
Pass defense + punt net

Road underdogs pairing pass-defense EPA edge with recent punt-net edge; includes an OC-tenure veto.

RESEARCH / SHADOW · Week 7+
Research downloads

Download each research folder as a ZIP. Snapshot: 2026-09-13. Dataset coverage and quality vary; check the included reports.

consistency_2023_review

12 files · 68.2 KB

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Files in this folder
  • protection_cutoff_sensitivity.csv
  • protection8_yearly.csv
  • protection8_excluded_games.csv
  • protection8_kept_games.csv
  • postgame_stats_not_predictors.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • summary.json
  • 2023_games.csv
  • pregame_comparisons.csv
  • all_seven_losses.csv
  • all_added_filter_trials.csv
  • training_selected_filter_yearly.csv

consistent_high_win

24 files · 4.4 MB

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Files in this folder
  • 2018_rule_13932_games.csv
  • earlier_selected_rules.csv
  • 2018_rule_13938_games.csv
  • 2018_rule_13932_yearly.csv
  • full_history_passes.csv
  • protocol.json
  • 2014_rule_8876_games.csv
  • 2018_rule_13938_yearly.csv
  • 2018_rule_1244_yearly.csv
  • positive_but_negative_years.csv
  • 2018_rule_12035_yearly.csv
  • 2018_rule_13768_games.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • reported_candidates.csv
  • summary.json
  • 2018_rule_1244_games.csv
  • 2018_rule_12035_games.csv
  • 2014_rule_8876_yearly.csv
  • all_trials.csv
  • 2018_rule_13768_yearly.csv
  • 2018_rule_13535_games.csv
  • 2018_rule_13535_yearly.csv
  • near_miss_raw_price_audit.csv
  • input_protocol/protocol.json

context_research

16 files · 4.7 MB

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Files in this folder
  • yearly_rules.csv
  • walkforward_bets.csv
  • annual_choices.csv
  • protocol.json
  • FINDINGS.md
  • selected_bets_espn_sensitivity.csv
  • availability_audit.json
  • all_rules.csv
  • eligible_research_sides.csv
  • walkforward_results.csv
  • validation_summary.json
  • injury_timing_summary.json
  • injury_timing_by_season.csv
  • selected_bets_yearly.csv
  • injuries_modified_24h_before.csv
  • lagged_context_features.csv

data

167 files · 395.1 MB

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Files in this folder
  • schedules/games.parquet
  • nextgen_stats/ngs_rushing.parquet
  • nextgen_stats/ngs_passing.parquet
  • nextgen_stats/ngs_receiving.parquet
  • teams/teams_colors_logos.parquet
  • officials/officials.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2017.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2008.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2024.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2018.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2013.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2011.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2023.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2012.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2010.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2009.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2016.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2007.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2006.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2020.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2015.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2022.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2026.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2025.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2019.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2014.parquet
  • stats_player/stats_player_week_2021.parquet
  • contracts/historical_contracts.parquet
  • pbp/play_by_play_2008.parquet
  • pbp/play_by_play_2023.parquet

Showing the first 30 files. The ZIP contains all 167 files.

expanded_search

6 files · 207.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • annual_rule_choices.csv
  • search_protocol.json
  • walkforward_selected_bets.csv
  • all_rules.csv
  • walkforward_family_results.csv
  • historical_stability_screen.csv

feature_store

6 files · 23.3 MB

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Files in this folder
  • weekly_team_ratings.parquet
  • definitions.json
  • pregame_team_sides.csv
  • missing_team_game_stats.csv
  • weekly_team_ratings.csv
  • pregame_team_sides.parquet

historical_alert_probabilities

5 files · 9.3 KB

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Files in this folder
  • RESULTS.md
  • training_through_2025.json
  • rule_price_history.csv
  • preyear_predictions.csv
  • summary.json

historical_odds

5448 files · 11.7 MB

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Files in this folder
  • espn_unphased_moneylines.csv
  • asb_open_close_quotes.csv
  • asb_coverage_by_season.csv
  • asb_vs_existing_moneylines.csv
  • all_open_close_quotes.csv
  • asb_vs_espn_closing_moneylines.csv
  • quality_summary.json
  • asb_summary.json
  • aussportsbetting_nfl.xlsx
  • oddsapi_timestamped_sample.json
  • espn_open_close_quotes.csv
  • README.md
  • asb_join_audit.csv
  • summary.json
  • coverage_by_season.csv
  • espn_fetch_audit.csv
  • asb_source_notes.txt
  • espn_raw/401030748.json
  • espn_raw/400951777.json
  • espn_raw/270923007.json
  • espn_raw/260924034.json
  • espn_raw/401547543.json
  • espn_raw/401547453.json
  • espn_raw/271230021.json
  • espn_raw/401772738.json
  • espn_raw/311107021.json
  • espn_raw/291011010.json
  • espn_raw/400874642.json
  • espn_raw/331222008.json
  • espn_raw/401030863.json

Showing the first 30 files. The ZIP contains all 5448 files.

home_opener_history

8 files · 165.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • previous_wins_by_price_role.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • scheduled_home_openers.csv
  • protocol.json
  • validation.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • summary.csv
  • every_completed_home_opener.csv

home_opener_odds_audit

7 files · 26.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • exceptions.csv
  • game_by_game.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • all_source_quotes.csv
  • source_roi.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • summary.json

home_opener_pair_search

10 files · 221.6 KB

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Files in this folder
  • frozen_2017_followup.json
  • shortlist.csv
  • candidate.json
  • validation.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • frozen_2017_games.csv
  • candidate_yearly.csv
  • candidate_games.csv
  • all_trials.csv
  • annual_selection.csv

home_opener_price_comparison

15 files · 34.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • NO_original_open_similar_games.csv
  • TB_stricter_close_similar_games.csv
  • NO_original_close_similar_games.csv
  • LAC_stricter_close_similar_games.csv
  • comparison.json
  • TB_original_open_similar_games.csv
  • LAC_original_close_similar_games.csv
  • BAL_original_open_similar_games.csv
  • BAL_original_close_similar_games.csv
  • TB_original_close_similar_games.csv
  • NO_stricter_close_similar_games.csv
  • LAC_original_open_similar_games.csv
  • TB_stricter_open_similar_games.csv
  • NO_stricter_open_similar_games.csv
  • LAC_stricter_open_similar_games.csv

home_opener_refinement

21 files · 939.9 KB

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Files in this folder
  • yearly_rules.csv
  • annual_choices.csv
  • candidate_46_validation.json
  • candidate_46_yearly.csv
  • rule_40_bets.csv
  • all_rules.csv
  • candidate_rule.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • rule_44_bets.csv
  • rule_211_bets.csv
  • rule_48_bets.csv
  • rule_70_bets.csv
  • pregame_last_season_features.csv
  • rule_224_bets.csv
  • summary.json
  • rule_38_bets.csv
  • positive_era_shortlist.csv
  • rule_46_bets.csv
  • rule_259_bets.csv
  • annual_selected_bets.csv
  • rule_80_bets.csv

home_opener_stress

10 files · 71.4 KB

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Files in this folder
  • fixed_rule_equity.csv
  • pregame_win_loss_comparison.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • sensitivity.csv
  • leave_one_year_out.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • espn_comparison.csv
  • payout_sensitivity.csv
  • summary.json
  • all_losses.csv

home_openers_2026

3 files · 633.7 KB

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Files in this folder
  • all_32_home_openers.csv
  • qualifiers.csv
  • schedule_snapshot.csv

late_season_inputs

4 files · 23.0 KB

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Files in this folder
  • snap_counts_2026.parquet
  • stats_team_week_2026.json
  • snap_counts_2026.json
  • stats_team_week_2026.parquet

nfl_com_power_rankings

11 files · 292.1 KB

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Files in this folder
  • article_log.json
  • issues.csv
  • coverage.csv
  • protocol.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • manifest.json
  • game_rankings_all_statuses.csv
  • weekly_rankings.csv
  • game_rankings_conservative.csv
  • index_log.json
  • summary.json

offense_filter_validation

10 files · 45.2 KB

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Files in this folder
  • threshold_sensitivity.csv
  • leave_one_team_out.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • excluded_games.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • verified_kept_games.csv
  • qualifiers_2026.csv
  • pregame_observation_20260912T134822Z.json
  • stress_tests.csv
  • summary.json

pair_candidate_validation

19 files · 716.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • leave_one_season_out.csv
  • independent_prior_profiles.csv
  • threshold_sensitivity.csv
  • verified_games.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • all_source_quotes.csv
  • prospective_observations_20260912T133130Z.json
  • source_returns.csv
  • protocol.json
  • descriptive_win_loss_metrics.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • qualifiers_2026.csv
  • payout_sensitivity.csv
  • all_candidate_games.csv
  • summary.json
  • overlap.csv
  • schedule_snapshot.csv
  • all_losses.csv
  • current_price_comparison.csv

pair_loss_analysis

14 files · 137.7 KB

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Files in this folder
  • every_loss_pregame_and_postgame.csv
  • avoid_bottom8_offense_kept.csv
  • protocol.json
  • selected_filter_removed.csv
  • winner_loser_pregame_comparison.csv
  • selected_filter_yearly.csv
  • avoid_bottom8_offense_excluded.csv
  • selected_filter_kept.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • top8_rushing_excluded.csv
  • exploratory_offense_sensitivity.csv
  • summary.json
  • all_filter_trials.csv
  • top8_rushing_kept.csv

pass_rush_matchup

8 files · 9.7 MB

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Files in this folder
  • all_selections.csv
  • features_and_prices.csv
  • yearly.csv
  • protocol.json
  • validation.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • same_game_price_comparison.csv
  • summary.csv

pass_rush_roi

14 files · 1.2 MB

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Files in this folder
  • leave_one_season_out.csv
  • underdog_review.json
  • annual_roi_first_choices.csv
  • underdog_above_200_yearly.csv
  • breakdowns.csv
  • baseline_bets_equity.csv
  • price_band_by_era.csv
  • underdog_candidate.json
  • profit_concentration.csv
  • underdog_above_200_bets.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • summary.json
  • underdog_above_200_closing_selected.csv
  • annual_selected_bets.csv

protection_interactions

11 files · 179.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • all_36_interactions.csv
  • reported_yearly.csv
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_passing_top16_kept.csv
  • protocol.json
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_more_rest_kept.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_defensive_pressure_top16_kept.csv
  • five_opponents_comparison.csv
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_defensive_pressure_top16_excluded.csv
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_passing_top16_excluded.csv
  • protection_top8_AND_opponent_more_rest_excluded.csv

regular_season_roi

53 files · 2.8 MB

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Files in this folder
  • rule_1982_yearly.csv
  • rule_540_yearly.csv
  • rule_118_games.csv
  • rule_1499_neighbors.csv
  • rule_235_games.csv
  • rule_2340_games.csv
  • rule_2425_yearly.csv
  • rule_1512_yearly.csv
  • rule_2177_verified_games.csv
  • frozen_family_results.csv
  • rule_705_yearly.csv
  • rule_1982_neighbors.csv
  • rule_540_neighbors.csv
  • raw_workbook_validation.csv
  • rule_2689_yearly.csv
  • rule_235_yearly.csv
  • rule_1307_neighbors.csv
  • rule_1512_games.csv
  • exploratory_positive_both_periods.csv
  • rule_2425_neighbors.csv
  • rule_2340_yearly.csv
  • rule_2689_neighbors.csv
  • protocol.json
  • rule_1512_neighbors.csv
  • rule_1852_yearly.csv
  • rule_1307_games.csv
  • rule_2177_neighbors.csv
  • rule_2177_yearly.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • rule_1499_yearly.csv

Showing the first 30 files. The ZIP contains all 53 files.

road_streaks

6 files · 177.8 KB

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Files in this folder
  • RESULTS.md
  • regular_season/all_road_games.csv
  • regular_season/every_second_third_game.csv
  • regular_season/yearly.csv
  • regular_season/protocol.json
  • regular_season/summary.csv

top_bottom_defense

7 files · 2.6 MB

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Files in this folder
  • all_qualifying_games.csv
  • points_allowed_every_game.csv
  • protocol.json
  • yearly_results.csv
  • validation.json
  • RESULTS.md
  • summary.csv

underdog_refinement

16 files · 394.5 KB

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Files in this folder
  • rule_4_excluded_bets.csv
  • walkforward_bets.csv
  • rule_15_excluded_bets.csv
  • pregame_win_loss_associations.csv
  • yearly_filters.csv
  • walkforward_choices.csv
  • rule_4_kept_bets.csv
  • all_filters.csv
  • RESULTS.md
  • rule_28_kept_bets.csv
  • rule_28_excluded_bets.csv
  • all_candidate_games.csv
  • summary.json
  • candidates.json
  • rule_15_kept_bets.csv
  • validation_and_sensitivity.json

validation

85 files · 163.0 KB

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Files in this folder
  • walkforward_by_season.csv
  • walkforward_bets.csv
  • neighbors.csv
  • espn_odds_sample.json
  • walkforward_policy.json
  • FINDINGS.md
  • odds_crosscheck_primary.csv
  • odds_summary.json
  • execution_sensitivity.csv
  • leave_one_out.csv
  • odds_crosscheck_all_providers.csv
  • espn_20241117.json
  • summary.json
  • splits.csv
  • espn_archive/331020001.json
  • espn_archive/321111017.json
  • espn_archive/281026030.json
  • espn_archive/401437886.json
  • espn_archive/321118028.json
  • espn_archive/401030935.json
  • espn_archive/311030002.json
  • espn_archive/261022034.json
  • espn_archive/400874566.json
  • espn_archive/401030731.json
  • espn_archive/321202006.json
  • espn_archive/401326535.json
  • espn_archive/331027018.json
  • espn_archive/401772788.json
  • espn_archive/401671715.json
  • espn_archive/400791665.json

Showing the first 30 files. The ZIP contains all 85 files.

Reports and indexes

12 files · 1.8 MB

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Files in this folder
  • rest_offense_exploratory_candidate_bets.csv
  • supplement_manifest.json
  • expanded_manifest.json
  • DATA_CATALOG.md
  • transfer_verification.json
  • candidate_rule.json
  • nfl_2026_alert_rules.json
  • coverage_summary.json
  • data_catalog.json
  • corrected_pregame_core.csv
  • LATE_METHOD_PROTOCOL.md
  • raw_core.json

Earlier research / data

2 files · 1.2 MB

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Files in this folder
  • raw/team_weekly_2006_2026.parquet
  • raw/schedules_2006_2026.parquet

Earlier research / nfl_candidate_validation

6 files · 28.7 KB

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Files in this folder
  • neighbor_threshold_results.csv
  • exact_rule_by_era_block.csv
  • exact_candidates.csv
  • walk_forward_by_season.csv
  • exact_rule_drawdowns.csv
  • exact_rule_by_season.csv

Earlier research / nfl_rush_matchup_deep_dive

9 files · 122.6 KB

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Files in this folder
  • widest_stable10.csv
  • base_odds_bands.csv
  • base_market_groups.csv
  • rush_threshold_grid.csv
  • base_by_year.csv
  • expanded_walk_forward_by_year.csv
  • base_exact_bets.csv
  • widest_recent10.csv
  • base_by_week_floor.csv

Earlier research / rolling_roi_discovery

4 files · 4.7 MB

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Files in this folder
  • roi_10plus_both_eras.csv
  • week_floor_sample_sizes.csv
  • all_moneyline_rules.csv
  • pregame_team_sides_2006_2026.parquet