Appwiza · UFC

UFC qualifying matchups

Method-qualified selections used by the UFC scanner, grouped by event date, with recorded prices and historical evidence.

Updated: Oct 06, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET2 upcoming · nearest events first
Overall record12-2
Win rate85.7%
Tracked ROI+19.1%
Net units+2.67u
Upcoming2
UFC Research Archive

Historical method studies, validation reports and supporting datasets remain separate from the live tracker.

Open Research Downloads →
Method audit

Current UFC audit

Qualification overview

Current scanner-qualified UFC selections, with method evidence summarized before the detailed cards below.

2 active
SelectionMethodHistorical evidencePriceStatus
Felipe Franco
Brendson Ribeiro		Age Hybrid · Strong83.1% / +5.05%-345QUALIFIED
Julius Walker
Gerald Meerschaert		Age Hybrid · Strong83.1% / +5.05%-265QUALIFIED
Current board

Available selections

Saturday, October 10

2 selections

Felipe Franco to win

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 08:00 PM ET
-345BetRivers
Age Hybrid · Strong
Win 83.1%739 / 889ROI +5.05%
Method details & qualification checks

Age Hybrid · Strong: Full 2006–2026 age-hybrid master, including both tiers. Recent 2024–2026: 140 bets, 84.3% wins, +4.78% ROI. Historical price comparison (-300 to -399): 290 bets, 80.0% wins, +3.93% ROI.

  • Market probability 75.2% (required ≥70%)
  • Favorite 4.4 years younger (required ≥4)
  • Skill veto not triggered
  • Opponent context verified: ages 25.7 vs 30.1; sig-diff gap +1.53/min; TD-attempt gap vs favorite -2.98/15; control gap vs favorite -2.12 min/15

Julius Walker to win

Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 08:00 PM ET
-265BetOnline.ag
Age Hybrid · Strong
Win 83.1%739 / 889ROI +5.05%
Method details & qualification checks

Age Hybrid · Strong: Full 2006–2026 age-hybrid master, including both tiers. Recent 2024–2026: 140 bets, 84.3% wins, +4.78% ROI. Historical price comparison (-250 to -299): 175 bets, 79.4% wins, +8.63% ROI.

  • Market probability 70.4% (required ≥70%)
  • Favorite 11.6 years younger (required ≥4)
  • Skill veto not triggered
  • Opponent context verified: ages 27.2 vs 38.8; sig-diff gap +0.03/min; TD-attempt gap vs favorite -4.82/15; control gap vs favorite -4.82 min/15
Tracked results

Completed selections

One unit per tracked selection at the recorded moneyline. Pending results are excluded from ROI.

DatePickMatchupMethodPriceResultP/L
Sat, Oct 03, 2026Payton TalbottPayton Talbott vs Deiveson FigueiredoU1, U7, U8-530WIN+0.19u
Sat, Oct 03, 2026Damian PinasDamian Pinas vs Andrey PulyaevU1-500WIN+0.20u
Sat, Sep 26, 2026Rinya NakamuraRinya Nakamura vs Brady HiestandU8-335LOSS-1.00u
Sat, Sep 26, 2026Rodolfo VieiraRodolfo Vieira vs Robert BryczekU5-108WIN+0.93u
Sat, Sep 26, 2026Montel JacksonMontel Jackson vs Ricky SimonU2-205WIN+0.49u
Sat, Sep 26, 2026Yazmin JaureguiYazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa DemopoulosU1, U2, U4, U8-600WIN+0.17u
Sat, Sep 26, 2026Mickey GallMickey Gall vs Sedriques DumasU10-155PENDING—
Sat, Sep 19, 2026Joshua VanJoshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaU10-128WIN+0.78u
Sat, Sep 19, 2026Arman TsarukyanArman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio RuffyU5-330WIN+0.30u
Sat, Sep 19, 2026Ryan GandraRyan Gandra vs Ozzy DiazU1-450WIN+0.22u
Sat, Sep 19, 2026Edmen ShahbazyanEdmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno FerreiraU10-154WIN+0.65u
Sat, Sep 19, 2026Joanderson BritoJoanderson Brito vs Giga ChikadzeU1-345WIN+0.29u
Sat, Sep 12, 2026Manon FiorotManon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoU7-270LOSS-1.00u
Sat, Sep 12, 2026David MartinezDavid Martinez vs Dan IgeU1-380WIN+0.26u
Sat, Sep 12, 2026Ignacio BahamondesIgnacio Bahamondes vs Muslim SalikhovU1, U2, U4, U8-525WIN+0.19u
Method Key · U1–U12

Brief guide to the official UFC methods that can create a live selection. Every live method must pass the shared opponent-context publication guard; unregistered future methods fail closed. “Strong” is a tighter tier of the same method, not a separate bet.

U1
Age Hybrid

Market-supported favorite with a meaningful age advantage; stronger tier requires a larger age edge.

U2
Reach Hybrid

Market-supported favorite with a clear reach advantage; stronger tier uses the larger reach threshold.

U3
Structural Edge

Combines market support, a younger favorite and a large reach advantage, with the skill veto clear.

U4
Age + Reach Premium

Higher-confidence overlap of age and reach: market support plus both a younger and longer favorite.

U5
Wrestling Mismatch

High takedown/control wrestler facing an opponent with very low wrestling volume and control.

U6
Pace + Defense

Favorite has both a striking-output advantage and a significant-strike defense advantage.

U7
Striking + TD Defense · Risk Gated

Favorite owns a large striking-differential and takedown-defense edge; the live rule also requires the validated age/power risk gate to clear.

U8
Striking Differential + Opponent Context

Strong striking-differential favorite, but now explicitly checks the opponent: favorites >3 years older are vetoed, and >2 years older are vetoed when the younger opponent carries meaningful wrestling pressure.

U9
Experience + Veteran Health

Battle-tested favorite versus a thin UFC sample, with minimum win-rate edge and veteran-health veto.

U10
KO/TKO Recovery + Opponent Age Guard

Both fighters have prior UFC KO/TKO losses; the recovery-gap edge must clear and the favorite cannot be more than 2 years older than the opponent.

U11
Veteran Age/Defense Decline

U9-style veteran matchup with a five-factor decline screen; four or more risks veto the selection.

U12
Veteran Balanced Decline

U9-style veteran matchup with a broader six-factor decline screen including recent form; four or more risks veto it.

Research downloads

Download each research folder as a ZIP. Snapshot: 2026-09-13. Dataset coverage and quality vary; check the included reports.

combined_age_reach_backtest

2 files · 1.4 MB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • reach_market_sample.csv
  • combined_age_reach_yearly_2006_2026.csv

favorite_loss_risk_analysis

6 files · 594.7 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • enriched_market_sample.csv
  • individuals.csv
  • higher_roi_candidates.csv
  • top_100_heavy_favorite_losses.csv
  • report.txt
  • risk_flags.csv

historical_backtest

19 files · 3.4 MB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • backtest_summary.json
  • complete_ufc_data.csv
  • walkforward_fight_results.csv
  • backtest_report.txt
  • age_gap_summary_edge5.csv
  • threshold_summary.csv
  • current_model_retrospective_NOT_OOS.csv
  • source_summary_edge5.csv
  • year_summary_edge5.csv
  • moneyline.csv
  • division_summary_edge5.csv
  • recent_master_2024_2026.csv
  • master_2006_2026/hybrid_2024_2026.csv
  • master_2006_2026/hybrid_2006_2023.csv
  • master_2006_2026/yearly_master.csv
  • master_2006_2026/price_bands_master.csv
  • master_2006_2026/hybrid_master_2006_2026.csv
  • master_2006_2026/report.txt
  • master_2006_2026/summary.csv

hybrid_70_agegap

7 files · 397.8 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • all_70plus_market_favorites.csv
  • age_gap_bucket_summary.csv
  • hybrid_rule_summary.csv
  • market_band_age_side_summary.csv
  • hybrid_70_agegap_report.txt
  • summary.json
  • yearly_younger3_summary.csv

hybrid_70_agegap_robustness

8 files · 171.6 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • source_summary.csv
  • rolling_3yr_summary.csv
  • all_rule_bets.csv
  • yearly_summary.csv
  • summary.json
  • age_gap_threshold_stability.csv
  • time_split_summary.csv
  • robustness_report.txt

hybrid_price_history

6 files · 179.8 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • roi_by_max_line.csv
  • qualifying_hybrid_fights.csv
  • roi_by_price_tax.csv
  • roi_by_market_probability.csv
  • roi_by_moneyline_band.csv
  • price_history_report.txt

market_anchor_backtest

9 files · 2.5 MB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • market_anchor_fight_results.csv
  • market_anchor_edge_thresholds.csv
  • market_anchor_walkforward_predictions.csv
  • market_anchor_and_70pct_report.txt
  • age_model_70plus_buckets.csv
  • age_model_confidence_thresholds.csv
  • age_model_70plus_bets_50usd.csv
  • summary.json
  • market_70plus_bets_50usd.csv

model

3 files · 118.9 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • feature_importance.csv
  • training_fight_index.csv
  • backtest_metrics.json

model_v2

3 files · 119.3 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • training_fight_index.csv
  • model_family_selection.csv
  • v2_report.json

new_category_discovery

4 files · 983.1 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • prefight_favorite_features.csv
  • lower_overlap_candidates.csv
  • all_discovery_rules.csv
  • candidates_roi_9plus.csv

opponent_wrestling_threshold_expansion

6 files · 4.6 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • opponent_control_only.csv
  • all_combinations_roi_10plus.csv
  • all_opponent_threshold_combinations.csv
  • roi_matrix_percent.csv
  • opponent_td_attempts_only.csv
  • roi_10plus_positive_both_eras.csv

skill_veto_all_methods

4 files · 139.7 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • skill_veto_summary.csv
  • all_original_signals_with_skill_veto.csv
  • report.txt
  • skill_veto_threshold_sensitivity.csv

skill_veto_official_samples

4 files · 278.3 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • premium_133_with_skill_veto.csv
  • reach_415_with_skill_veto.csv
  • official_skill_veto_summary.csv
  • age_889_with_skill_veto.csv

striking_family_stability

7 files · 108.8 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • striking_defense_all.csv
  • striking_td_defense_all.csv
  • pace_defense_all.csv
  • all_9pct_positive_both_eras.csv
  • striking_differential_all.csv
  • all_striking_family_results.csv
  • stable_striking_candidates.csv

striking_portfolio_100

5 files · 26.2 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • unique_portfolio_by_year.csv
  • overlap_groups.csv
  • all_strategy_signal_bets.csv
  • unique_fight_portfolio.csv
  • strategy_summary.csv

structural_edge_failure_analysis

6 files · 16.1 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • all_structural_edge_losses.csv
  • structural_edge_83_fights.csv
  • exclusion_candidates.csv
  • division_breakdown.csv
  • report.txt
  • risk_flags.csv

structural_edge_performance_analysis

7 files · 2.1 MB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • competitions.csv
  • losses_with_prefight_performance.csv
  • validated_performance_filters.csv
  • winner_loser_feature_comparison.csv
  • structural_edge_with_prefight_performance.csv
  • performance_exclusion_candidates.csv
  • report.txt

structural_edge_striking_wrestling_stability

6 files · 13.6 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • striking_threshold_stability.csv
  • losses_wrestling_context.csv
  • wrestling_grappling_filters.csv
  • combined_striking_wrestling_filters.csv
  • report.txt
  • validated_wrestling_filters.csv

threshold_stability_analysis

5 files · 74.4 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • robust_threshold_results.csv
  • stability_ranked.csv
  • plateau_8_to_12_roi.csv
  • report.txt
  • all_threshold_results.csv

underdog_structural_edge_analysis

4 files · 17.4 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • top_100_underdog_wins_with_structural_edges.csv
  • robust_underdog_candidates.csv
  • report.txt
  • underdog_rule_results.csv

wrestling_mismatch_analysis

7 files · 199.4 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • all_wrestling_thresholds.csv
  • opponent_control_vulnerability.csv
  • opponent_tdd_modifier.csv
  • submission_ground_modifiers.csv
  • robust_wrestling_candidates.csv
  • report.txt
  • anchor_examples.csv

wrestling_stability_positive_roi

1 files · 506.1 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • all_favorite_sides_with_prefight_wrestling.csv

Reports and indexes

4 files · 2.2 MB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • ufcstats_competitions_skill_cache.csv
  • striking_method_index.json
  • README.md
  • fighter_reach_cache.json

Age research / outputs

7 files · 963.1 KB

Download folder ZIP ↓
Files in this folder
  • model_summary.txt
  • division_age_summary.csv
  • age_gap_summary.csv
  • fighter_age_summary.csv
  • older_age_x_age_gap.csv
  • fights_with_age.csv
  • missing_dobs.csv