RESEARCH ONLY — NOT LIVE BETS

NFL Research Lab

Experimental methods, validation, holdout performance, veto research and independent consensus. Updated 2026-09-15 03:14 UTC.

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Separation rule: nothing on this page is automatically added to the official /sports/nfl tracker, email alerts or bet tracker. A method moves live only after the research/holdout review is frozen and explicitly promoted.

Research inventory

tracked research methods

Priority independent consensus

CO+H

CO005 + NFL-H017

16-2 · 88.9%

ROI +125.0% · Holdout —

CO+H

CO017 + NFL-H029

13-2 · 86.7%

ROI +109.5% · Holdout —

RS+H

RS001 + NFL-H003

19-5 · 79.2%

ROI +97.7% · Holdout +100.0%

RS+H

RS003 + NFL-H036

13-2 · 86.7%

ROI +119.6% · Holdout +118.8%

RS+H

RS003 + NFL-H017

17-8 · 68.0%

ROI +69.8% · Holdout +79.9%

Current legacy live methods — historical audit

Shown for reference. These are separate from the experimental research families below.

Method	W-L	Win %	ROI	2020–25 ROI	Positive seasons
original	75-16	82.4%	+16.0%	0.1415179958874123	13/18
stricter	55-9	85.9%	+17.2%	0.1236753753002162	13/17
late_road_protection_rest_v1	84-21	80.0%	+7.8%	0.1515698419554638	10/13
pass_defense_offense24	37-8	82.2%	+26.4%	0.2293989229752415	10/16

Research methods

Method	Family	Status	W-L / n	Win %	ROI	Holdout ROI	Odds	Signal	Veto(s)
NFL-H005	H	LIVE_READY	41-19	68.3%	+71.3%	+65.3%	+134 to +173	rank_edge_third_down_success >= 0.0; rank_edge_off_epa_per_play >= 10.0	oc_prior_role_seasons >= 3.0
NFL-H010	H	LIVE_READY	51-35	59.3%	+48.3%	+68.2%	+121 to +186	rank_edge_third_down_success >= 0.0; rank_edge_pass_epa_per_dropback >= 10.0	adv_dc_prior_win_pct <= -0.1042471042471042
NFL-H002	H	LIVE_READY	77-60	56.2%	+34.7%	+49.7%	+100 to +186	rank_edge_def_allowed_explosive_rate <= -6.0; recent_edge_punt_return_average >= 2.495833333333334	dome_game >= 1.0
NFL-H003	H	LIVE_READY	87-56	60.8%	+52.5%	+60.9%	+122 to +186	rank_edge_third_down_success >= 0.0; rank_edge_sack_or_hit_rate >= 5.0	recent_edge_def_allowed_pass_epa_per_dropback >= 0.2182382565949704
NFL-H008	H	LIVE_READY	72-64	52.9%	+36.3%	+26.1%	+136 to +186	rank_edge_third_down_success >= 0.0; recent_edge_kick_return_average >= 2.1666666666666643	—
NFL-H027	H	LIVE_READY	61-39	61.0%	+46.6%	+28.7%	+100 to +186	recent_edge_punt_return_average >= 4.415277777777777; recent_edge_success_rate >= 0.0	dc_tenure_seasons >= 3.0
NFL-H028	H	LIVE_READY	61-40	60.4%	+45.3%	+56.7%	+100 to +186	recent_edge_sack_or_hit_rate >= -0.0437273575519235; rank_edge_pass_epa_per_dropback >= 10.0	adv_abs_tz_shift_hours >= 0.0
NFL-H029	H	LIVE_READY	85-72	54.1%	+28.7%	+28.8%	+100 to +186	rank_edge_def_allowed_sack_or_hit_rate >= 14.0	rank_edge_punt_return_average <= -14.2
NFL-H017	H	LIVE_READY	119-95	55.6%	+34.0%	+38.6%	+100 to +186	recent_edge_sack_or_hit_rate >= -0.0437273575519235; rank_edge_def_allowed_explosive_rate <= -6.0	adv_prior_road_miles_last5 <= -315.24304298251786
NFL-H036	H	LIVE_READY	59-38	60.8%	+47.8%	+45.6%	+100 to +186	rank_edge_def_allowed_explosive_rate <= -9.75; rank_edge_def_allowed_pass_epa_per_dropback <= -6.0	adv_prior_road_miles_last5 <= -449.2804356656068
NFL-H033	H	LIVE_READY	137-134	50.6%	+20.7%	+13.7%	+100 to +186	recent_edge_punt_return_average >= 4.415277777777777	—
NFL-H035	H	LIVE_READY	62-50	55.4%	+33.6%	+22.4%	+100 to +186	rank_edge_def_allowed_pass_epa_per_dropback <= -6.0; recent_edge_punt_net_average >= 2.046011904761898	oc_tenure_seasons >= 3.0
CO001	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	34-59	36.6%	+36.9%	+45.4%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	travel_miles >= 953.1368323547238
CO005	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	80-78	50.6%	+26.9%	+47.7%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	opp_coachq_oc_prior_quality <= 0.524609375
CO026	CO	CO_CORE_READY_UNFILTERED	61-48	56.0%	+40.5%	+32.4%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	—
CO009	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	92-173	34.7%	+28.8%	+35.3%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	opp_coachq_dc_quality_delta_vs_departed >= 0.1135416666666666
CO048	CO	CO_CORE_READY_UNFILTERED	43-55	43.9%	+53.1%	+20.3%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	—
CO043	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	35-59	37.2%	+35.7%	+28.5%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	opp_coachq_hc_prior_quality <= 0.5021367521367521
CO061	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	36-61	37.1%	+30.8%	+24.7%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	coachq_prev_hc_recent_quality >= 0.7615384615384617
CO017	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	69-77	47.3%	+18.3%	+21.3%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	rank_edge_passing_cpoe <= -10.2
CO016	CO	CO_CORE_READY_UNFILTERED	82-19	81.2%	+16.4%	+15.5%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	—
CO018	CO	CO_CORE_READY_WITH_VETO	92-40	69.7%	+16.2%	+16.0%	See method registry	Coach-only signal	recent_edge_off_epa >= 8.838128863381744
RS001	RS	FINAL_SHADOW_READY	40-20	66.7%	+66.9%	+91.2%	+122 to +186	Heavy-road schedule + pressure edge	opp_prior_road_miles_last3 <= 1084.2572731409475
RS002	RS	FINAL_SHADOW_READY	61-25	70.9%	+71.8%	+76.2%	+100 to +186	Run-heavy + punt-net edge	recent_edge_def_allowed_pass_epa_per_dropback >= 0.1544327526509944
RS003	RS	FINAL_SHADOW_READY	87-53	62.1%	+49.5%	+51.1%	+100 to +186	Run-heavy + defensive YPP edge	rank_edge_def_allowed_giveaway_rate >= 9.400000000000006
US001	US	SHADOW_READY	55-37	59.8%	+21.0%	+51.6%	-122 to +108	COACH_TRANSITION	—
US002	US	SHADOW_READY	48-78	38.1%	+26.7%	+51.0%	+186 to +400	COACH_TRANSITION	—
US004	US	SHADOW_READY	85-58	59.4%	+49.0%	+36.9%	+133 to +178	MARKET	FEATURE:rank_edge_passing_cpoe <= -9.0 \| FEATURE:recent_edge_giveaway_rate <= -0.016206011594845
US006	US	SHADOW_READY	45-45	50.0%	+26.4%	+34.2%	+122 to +186	MARKET	—
US009	US	SHADOW_READY	93-73	56.0%	+33.2%	+33.7%	-100 to +186	COACH_TRANSITION	FEATURE:rank_edge_punt_return_average <= 3.299999999999997
US007	US	SHADOW_READY	127-25	83.6%	+20.5%	+30.9%	-300 to -213	MARKET	FEATURE:recent_edge_def_allowed_explosive_rate <= 0.0023370835186801364
US005	US	SHADOW_READY	115-108	51.6%	+21.7%	+29.5%	+127 to +186	COACH_TRANSITION	—
US008	US	SHADOW_READY	109-78	58.3%	+40.0%	+23.7%	+117 to +170	COACH_TRANSITION	TIMING:W11_14 IN 11-14
US011	US	SHADOW_READY	120-102	54.1%	+31.8%	+19.7%	-100 to +186	MARKET	FEATURE:adv_prior_road_miles_last4 <= -132.39674298637522
US010	US	SHADOW_READY	104-50	67.5%	+11.3%	+16.9%	-186 to -122	COACH_TRANSITION	—
US003	US	WATCH	39-22	63.9%	+59.7%	+53.8%	+138 to +178	MARKET	FEATURE:adv_prev_travel_miles <= 0.0
SB002	SB	SHADOW_READY	60-30	66.7%	+67.6%	+77.0%	+127 to +178	STREAK	FEATURE:road_miles_last5_including_current >= 3577.008845591549 \| FEATURE:recent_edge_def_allowed_yards_per_play >= 0.8815571392779126
SB006	SB	SHADOW_READY	63-51	55.3%	+34.7%	+38.2%	-100 to +186	STREAK	—
SB008	SB	SHADOW_READY	72-21	77.4%	+28.3%	+32.8%	-186 to -144	STREAK	—
SB011	SB	SHADOW_READY	70-15	82.4%	+18.1%	+25.2%	-300 to -186	STREAK	—
SB016	SB	SHADOW_READY	69-75	47.9%	+15.5%	+31.5%	+133 to +186	BOUNCEBACK	—
SB025	SB	SHADOW_READY	60-13	82.2%	+37.7%	+27.0%	-170 to -122	STREAK	FEATURE:prior_road_miles_last5 <= 1013.262858881697

Research protocol

Pregame only

Signals must be knowable before kickoff. Regular-season-only and maturity gates are enforced where applicable.

Holdout confirmation

Price windows and veto stacks are selected before holdout. Attractive filters that fail later years are rejected.

Multi-veto allowed

More than one veto is permitted when incremental improvement survives train, validation and frozen holdout without collapsing sample size.

Win % + ROI

Every method shows historical W-L / win rate alongside ROI. Historical win rate is not presented as a calibrated probability for the next game.