WRESTLING MISMATCH ANALYSIS
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Historical target-fight sides with two-sided prior UFC history: 6688
All wrestler/opponent stats are calculated ONLY from UFC fights before the target fight.

ANCHOR RULE
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Wrestler: >=3 prior UFC fights, >=1.5 TD landed/15, >=4 TD attempts/15, >=2.5 min control/15
Opponent: >=3 prior UFC fights, <=2 TD attempts/15, <=1.5 min control/15
n=180 | wins=98 | win=54.4% | market expected=52.6% | lift=+1.82pp
Favorite subset: n=102 | exact flat-$100 ROI=+2.61%
Pre-2020 edge=-1.61pp (84) | 2020+ edge=+4.82pp (96)

TOP ROBUST THRESHOLD CANDIDATES
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TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 85 win= 62.4% mkt= 54.7% lift=+7.63pp | fav n= 56 ROI=+17.69% | pre=+5.25pp recent=+9.74pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 99 win= 57.6% mkt= 53.9% lift=+3.68pp | fav n= 60 ROI=+16.85% | pre=+1.47pp recent=+6.13pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=107 win= 57.0% mkt= 53.8% lift=+3.18pp | fav n= 65 ROI=+16.55% | pre=+0.38pp recent=+6.37pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 82 win= 58.5% mkt= 55.9% lift=+2.60pp | fav n= 54 ROI=+15.37% | pre=+1.71pp recent=+3.69pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 83 win= 59.0% mkt= 54.8% lift=+4.19pp | fav n= 53 ROI=+15.12% | pre=+7.72pp recent=+0.39pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 88 win= 58.0% mkt= 55.8% lift=+2.15pp | fav n= 58 ROI=+14.89% | pre=+0.99pp recent=+3.62pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 91 win= 59.3% mkt= 54.4% lift=+4.95pp | fav n= 57 ROI=+14.51% | pre=+7.36pp recent=+2.38pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 91 win= 59.3% mkt= 54.2% lift=+5.11pp | fav n= 57 ROI=+14.41% | pre=+1.79pp recent=+8.82pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 94 win= 56.4% mkt= 53.9% lift=+2.53pp | fav n= 57 ROI=+14.37% | pre=+1.34pp recent=+4.00pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 83 win= 57.8% mkt= 54.4% lift=+3.43pp | fav n= 52 ROI=+13.82% | pre=+2.77pp recent=+4.20pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=3.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 91 win= 56.0% mkt= 53.5% lift=+2.53pp | fav n= 55 ROI=+12.83% | pre=+0.31pp recent=+4.91pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=106 win= 61.3% mkt= 53.6% lift=+7.71pp | fav n= 66 ROI=+12.63% | pre=+6.47pp recent=+8.96pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=4 | n=126 win= 61.1% mkt= 53.4% lift=+7.74pp | fav n= 77 ROI=+12.39% | pre=+3.25pp recent=+11.58pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 95 win= 60.0% mkt= 54.4% lift=+5.62pp | fav n= 61 ROI=+11.75% | pre=+4.21pp recent=+7.00pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=3 | n=173 win= 60.7% mkt= 54.0% lift=+6.74pp | fav n=107 ROI=+11.69% | pre=+5.57pp recent=+7.90pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=101 win= 57.4% mkt= 54.2% lift=+3.27pp | fav n= 61 ROI=+11.56% | pre=+3.03pp recent=+3.59pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=4 | n=132 win= 59.1% mkt= 53.0% lift=+6.11pp | fav n= 79 ROI=+11.29% | pre=+2.01pp recent=+9.52pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=192 win= 58.9% mkt= 52.8% lift=+6.04pp | fav n=111 ROI=+11.18% | pre=+2.58pp recent=+9.64pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=4 | n= 83 win= 63.9% mkt= 54.3% lift=+9.57pp | fav n= 49 ROI=+11.05% | pre=+0.48pp recent=+16.53pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=241 win= 59.8% mkt= 53.5% lift=+6.22pp | fav n=143 ROI=+10.91% | pre=+5.63pp recent=+6.92pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=112 win= 58.9% mkt= 54.5% lift=+4.38pp | fav n= 69 ROI=+10.83% | pre=+1.20pp recent=+8.19pp
TDland>=2.5/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=4 | n= 86 win= 61.6% mkt= 55.1% lift=+6.50pp | fav n= 55 ROI=+10.82% | pre=+1.45pp recent=+11.55pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=3.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=111 win= 55.9% mkt= 53.3% lift=+2.58pp | fav n= 64 ROI=+10.82% | pre=+1.18pp recent=+4.29pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=3 | n=183 win= 59.6% mkt= 53.6% lift=+5.92pp | fav n=112 ROI=+10.58% | pre=+4.65pp recent=+7.18pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=253 win= 58.9% mkt= 53.3% lift=+5.61pp | fav n=149 ROI=+10.38% | pre=+4.95pp recent=+6.39pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=3 | n=210 win= 60.5% mkt= 52.9% lift=+7.62pp | fav n=123 ROI=+10.14% | pre=+3.89pp recent=+11.27pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=6.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=3.0/15 | opp ctrl<=1.50m/15 | prior>=4 | n= 82 win= 62.2% mkt= 54.3% lift=+7.89pp | fav n= 49 ROI=+10.11% | pre=+4.66pp recent=+10.18pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=3 | n=225 win= 59.1% mkt= 52.4% lift=+6.69pp | fav n=130 ROI=+10.00% | pre=+3.19pp recent=+10.10pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=154 win= 55.8% mkt= 52.9% lift=+2.98pp | fav n= 89 ROI= +9.97% | pre=+0.52pp recent=+5.93pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=4.0/15 | ctrl>=4.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=1.50m/15 | prior>=2 | n=136 win= 60.3% mkt= 55.9% lift=+4.38pp | fav n= 86 ROI= +9.96% | pre=+4.62pp recent=+4.10pp
TDland>=1.5/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n=134 win= 56.7% mkt= 53.9% lift=+2.86pp | fav n= 81 ROI= +9.92% | pre=+1.21pp recent=+4.79pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=177 win= 58.2% mkt= 53.1% lift=+5.11pp | fav n=101 ROI= +9.86% | pre=+2.75pp recent=+7.74pp
TDland>=3.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=3.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=130 win= 62.3% mkt= 56.6% lift=+5.67pp | fav n= 87 ROI= +9.75% | pre=+1.41pp recent=+9.92pp
TDland>=1.0/15 | TDatt>=5.0/15 | ctrl>=2.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=2.0/15 | opp ctrl<=2.25m/15 | prior>=2 | n=304 win= 58.6% mkt= 52.2% lift=+6.34pp | fav n=170 ROI= +9.73% | pre=+4.31pp recent=+8.66pp
TDland>=2.0/15 | TDatt>=3.0/15 | ctrl>=1.5m/15 | opp TDatt<=1.0/15 | opp ctrl<=0.75m/15 | prior>=2 | n= 81 win= 63.0% mkt= 56.5% lift=+6.45pp | fav n= 55 ROI= +9.71% | pre=+7.51pp recent=+5.30pp

OPPONENT TAKEDOWN DEFENSE — DOES IT CANCEL THE EDGE?
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<50%         n= 26 win= 50.0% mkt= 53.6% lift=-3.59pp | favROI=-12.81%
50-59.9%     n= 19 win= 57.9% mkt= 58.6% lift=-0.72pp | favROI=-12.55%
60-69.9%     n= 37 win= 62.2% mkt= 55.2% lift=+6.97pp | favROI=+16.66%
70-79.9%     n= 38 win= 47.4% mkt= 53.5% lift=-6.13pp | favROI= -3.25%
80%+         n= 57 win= 54.4% mkt= 48.6% lift=+5.81pp | favROI=+10.21%

OPPONENT CONTROL VULNERABILITY
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<1m/15       n= 30 win= 53.3% mkt= 48.1% lift=+5.19pp | favROI= -1.14%
1-1.9m/15    n= 47 win= 59.6% mkt= 52.6% lift=+7.02pp | favROI= +1.11%
2-2.9m/15    n= 37 win= 37.8% mkt= 48.4% lift=-10.57pp | favROI= +1.98%
3m+/15       n= 66 win= 60.6% mkt= 57.1% lift=+3.52pp | favROI= +5.13%

Interpretation: positive lift means the wrestler won more often than the market probability implied. Favorite ROI uses the exact historical favorite price; underdog ROI is not inferred.
