STRUCTURAL EDGE — STRIKING + WRESTLING STABILITY ANALYSIS
==============================================================================================================================
Base: n=83 ROI=+12.10% P/L=$+1,004.18
All stats are pre-fight only.

STRIKING THRESHOLD STABILITY
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
strike defense diff <= -7.5pp                    -> n= 58 win= 91.4% ROI= +18.48% lift=+6.39pp | pre= +17.15% (40) recent= +21.45% (18) | removed=25 loss= 28.0%
strike defense diff <= -10.0pp                   -> n= 65 win= 90.8% ROI= +18.46% lift=+6.36pp | pre= +15.74% (43) recent= +23.76% (22) | removed=18 loss= 33.3%
sig-strike differential <= -1.00/min             -> n= 72 win= 90.3% ROI= +17.97% lift=+5.87pp | pre= +14.05% (47) recent= +25.34% (25) | removed=11 loss= 45.5%
strike defense diff <= -12.5pp                   -> n= 69 win= 89.9% ROI= +17.69% lift=+5.59pp | pre= +14.20% (46) recent= +24.66% (23) | removed=14 loss= 35.7%
strike defense diff <= -5.0pp                    -> n= 53 win= 90.6% ROI= +17.47% lift=+5.37pp | pre= +16.22% (37) recent= +20.37% (16) | removed=30 loss= 23.3%
sig-strike differential <= -0.75/min             -> n= 69 win= 89.9% ROI= +17.31% lift=+5.21pp | pre= +13.37% (45) recent= +24.70% (24) | removed=14 loss= 35.7%
sig-strike differential <= -0.50/min             -> n= 68 win= 89.7% ROI= +17.18% lift=+5.08pp | pre= +13.08% (44) recent= +24.70% (24) | removed=15 loss= 33.3%
sig-strike differential <= -1.50/min             -> n= 76 win= 89.5% ROI= +16.98% lift=+4.89pp | pre= +12.48% (50) recent= +25.66% (26) | removed= 7 loss= 57.1%
sig-strike differential <= -1.25/min             -> n= 75 win= 89.3% ROI= +16.76% lift=+4.67pp | pre= +12.48% (50) recent= +25.34% (25) | removed= 8 loss= 50.0%
strike defense diff <= -15.0pp                   -> n= 73 win= 89.0% ROI= +16.68% lift=+4.58pp | pre= +12.26% (48) recent= +25.17% (25) | removed=10 loss= 40.0%
strike defense diff <= -20.0pp                   -> n= 79 win= 88.6% ROI= +16.20% lift=+4.10pp | pre= +11.56% (53) recent= +25.66% (26) | removed= 4 loss= 75.0%
sig-strike differential <= -2.00/min             -> n= 78 win= 88.5% ROI= +15.85% lift=+3.75pp | pre= +10.95% (52) recent= +25.66% (26) | removed= 5 loss= 60.0%

WRESTLING / GRAPPLING FILTERS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -20pp                             -> n= 70 62-8 win= 88.6% ROI= +15.75% lift=+3.65pp | pre= +11.09% recent= +24.68% | removed=13, loss= 30.8%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          -> n= 75 66-9 win= 88.0% ROI= +14.88% lift=+2.79pp | pre=  +9.58% recent= +24.89% | removed= 8, loss= 37.5%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          -> n= 74 65-9 win= 87.8% ROI= +14.73% lift=+2.63pp | pre=  +9.23% recent= +24.89% | removed= 9, loss= 33.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          -> n= 74 65-9 win= 87.8% ROI= +14.73% lift=+2.63pp | pre=  +9.23% recent= +24.89% | removed= 9, loss= 33.3%
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -30pp                             -> n= 72 63-9 win= 87.5% ROI= +14.53% lift=+2.43pp | pre=  +9.45% recent= +24.68% | removed=11, loss= 27.3%
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -15pp                             -> n= 65 57-8 win= 87.7% ROI= +14.36% lift=+2.26pp | pre=  +8.82% recent= +24.48% | removed=18, loss= 22.2%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         -> n= 79 69-10 win= 87.3% ROI= +14.29% lift=+2.20pp | pre=  +8.42% recent= +25.61% | removed= 4, loss= 50.0%
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -25pp                             -> n= 71 62-9 win= 87.3% ROI= +14.12% lift=+2.02pp | pre=  +8.73% recent= +24.68% | removed=12, loss= 25.0%
exclude if worse TD defense AND worse striking differential              -> n= 72 63-9 win= 87.5% ROI= +14.04% lift=+1.94pp | pre=  +8.14% recent= +25.14% | removed=11, loss= 27.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         -> n= 76 66-10 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.53% lift=+1.44pp | pre=  +6.88% recent= +25.61% | removed= 7, loss= 28.6%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         -> n= 76 66-10 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.53% lift=+1.44pp | pre=  +6.88% recent= +25.61% | removed= 7, loss= 28.6%
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -10pp                             -> n= 61 53-8 win= 86.9% ROI= +13.04% lift=+0.94pp | pre=  +8.45% recent= +22.45% | removed=22, loss= 18.2%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog TD>=2.5/15                          -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +13.00% lift=+0.90pp | pre=  +6.57% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss= 33.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog TD>=2.5/15                          -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +13.00% lift=+0.90pp | pre=  +6.57% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss= 33.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog TD>=2.5/15                          -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +13.00% lift=+0.90pp | pre=  +6.57% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss= 33.3%
exclude if dog TD attempts >= 8/15                                       -> n= 71 61-10 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.98% lift=+0.88pp | pre=  +6.08% recent= +25.67% | removed=12, loss= 16.7%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog ctrl>=4m/15                         -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +12.87% lift=+0.77pp | pre=  +6.37% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss= 33.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog sub>=0.5/15                         -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +12.76% lift=+0.66pp | pre=  +6.92% recent= +24.89% | removed= 3, loss= 33.3%
exclude if dog TD attempts >= 6/15                                       -> n= 63 54-9 win= 85.7% ROI= +12.74% lift=+0.65pp | pre=  +6.00% recent= +24.47% | removed=20, loss= 15.0%
exclude if dog control >= 6 min/15                                       -> n= 71 61-10 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.68% lift=+0.58pp | pre=  +5.80% recent= +25.35% | removed=12, loss= 16.7%
exclude if dog TD attempts >= 10/15                                      -> n= 76 65-11 win= 85.5% ROI= +12.67% lift=+0.57pp | pre=  +6.08% recent= +25.33% | removed= 7, loss= 14.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog ctrl>=4m/15                         -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.45% lift=+0.35pp | pre=  +5.48% recent= +25.61% | removed= 5, loss= 20.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog ctrl>=4m/15                         -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.45% lift=+0.35pp | pre=  +5.48% recent= +25.61% | removed= 5, loss= 20.0%
exclude if dog control >= 4 min/15                                       -> n= 55 47-8 win= 85.5% ROI= +12.36% lift=+0.26pp | pre=  +4.27% recent= +24.49% | removed=28, loss= 14.3%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog sub>=0.5/15                         -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.34% lift=+0.24pp | pre=  +6.07% recent= +24.89% | removed= 5, loss= 20.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog TD>=2.0/15                          -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.32% lift=+0.22pp | pre=  +5.28% recent= +25.61% | removed= 5, loss= 20.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog TD>=2.0/15                          -> n= 77 66-11 win= 85.7% ROI= +12.14% lift=+0.04pp | pre=  +4.86% recent= +25.61% | removed= 6, loss= 16.7%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog TD>=2.0/15                          -> n= 77 66-11 win= 85.7% ROI= +12.14% lift=+0.04pp | pre=  +4.86% recent= +25.61% | removed= 6, loss= 16.7%
exclude if dog control >= 8 min/15                                       -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.08% lift=-0.02pp | pre=  +5.61% recent= +25.03% | removed= 5, loss= 20.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog sub>=0.5/15                         -> n= 77 66-11 win= 85.7% ROI= +11.95% lift=-0.14pp | pre=  +6.07% recent= +24.20% | removed= 6, loss= 16.7%
exclude if dog TD landed >= 4.0/15                                       -> n= 75 64-11 win= 85.3% ROI= +11.66% lift=-0.44pp | pre=  +4.40% recent= +25.33% | removed= 8, loss= 12.5%
exclude if favorite submission-attempt diff <= -1.0/15                   -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.52% lift=-0.58pp | pre=  +4.58% recent= +25.94% | removed= 3, loss=  0.0%
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -5pp                              -> n= 57 49-8 win= 86.0% ROI= +11.45% lift=-0.65pp | pre=  +6.42% recent= +21.52% | removed=26, loss= 15.4%
exclude if favorite submission-attempt diff <= -0.5/15                   -> n= 73 62-11 win= 84.9% ROI= +11.45% lift=-0.65pp | pre=  +4.77% recent= +25.10% | removed=10, loss= 10.0%
exclude if favorite control diff <= -3 min/15                            -> n= 73 62-11 win= 84.9% ROI= +11.37% lift=-0.73pp | pre=  +4.92% recent= +24.52% | removed=10, loss= 10.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog ctrl>=5m/15                         -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.34% lift=-0.76pp | pre=  +4.06% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss=  0.0%
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog ctrl>=5m/15                         -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.34% lift=-0.76pp | pre=  +4.06% recent= +25.61% | removed= 3, loss=  0.0%
exclude if dog submission attempts >= 1.5/15                             -> n= 78 66-12 win= 84.6% ROI= +11.15% lift=-0.95pp | pre=  +4.45% recent= +25.35% | removed= 5, loss=  0.0%
exclude if favorite TD-attempt diff <= -4/15                             -> n= 71 60-11 win= 84.5% ROI= +11.02% lift=-1.08pp | pre=  +3.83% recent= +25.09% | removed=12, loss=  8.3%
exclude if dog submission attempts >= 1.0/15                             -> n= 72 61-11 win= 84.7% ROI= +11.00% lift=-1.09pp | pre=  +3.37% recent= +25.35% | removed=11, loss=  9.1%
exclude if dog TD attempts >= 5/15                                       -> n= 57 48-9 win= 84.2% ROI= +10.95% lift=-1.15pp | pre=  +2.38% recent= +24.58% | removed=26, loss= 11.5%
exclude if dog control >= 5 min/15                                       -> n= 62 52-10 win= 83.9% ROI= +10.45% lift=-1.65pp | pre=  +1.23% recent= +25.04% | removed=21, loss=  9.5%
exclude if favorite TD-attempt diff <= -3/15                             -> n= 68 57-11 win= 83.8% ROI= +10.25% lift=-1.85pp | pre=  +3.40% recent= +24.58% | removed=15, loss=  6.7%
exclude if dog submission attempts >= 0.5/15                             -> n= 56 47-9 win= 83.9% ROI= +10.17% lift=-1.93pp | pre=  +3.16% recent= +22.80% | removed=27, loss= 11.1%
exclude if favorite TD-landed diff <= -2.0/15                            -> n= 74 62-12 win= 83.8% ROI= +10.03% lift=-2.07pp | pre=  +2.41% recent= +24.97% | removed= 9, loss=  0.0%
exclude if favorite control diff <= -2 min/15                            -> n= 63 53-10 win= 84.1% ROI=  +9.97% lift=-2.13pp | pre=  +2.31% recent= +24.26% | removed=20, loss= 10.0%
exclude if favorite TD-attempt diff <= -2/15                             -> n= 61 51-10 win= 83.6% ROI=  +9.94% lift=-2.15pp | pre=  +2.88% recent= +24.43% | removed=22, loss=  9.1%
exclude if dog TD landed >= 2.5/15                                       -> n= 61 51-10 win= 83.6% ROI=  +9.78% lift=-2.32pp | pre=  +0.79% recent= +24.63% | removed=22, loss=  9.1%
exclude if dog TD>=2/15 AND sub>=1/15                                    -> n= 74 62-12 win= 83.8% ROI=  +9.78% lift=-2.32pp | pre=  +1.83% recent= +25.35% | removed= 9, loss=  0.0%
exclude if favorite control diff <= -1 min/15                            -> n= 54 45-9 win= 83.3% ROI=  +9.05% lift=-3.04pp | pre=  +1.51% recent= +22.96% | removed=29, loss= 10.3%

STRUCTURAL EDGE LOSSES — WRESTLING / GRAPPLING CONTEXT
==============================================================================================================================
2012-11-10 | Rich Franklin          lost to Cung Le                | mkt= 80.4% | TDdefΔ=-36pp | dogTD=+1.2/15 att=+1.8/15 | dogCTRL=+0.7m/15 | dogSUB=+0.0/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=-0.2/15 | sigDiffΔ=+2.47/min
2016-03-19 | Antonio Carlos Junior  lost to Daniel Kelly           | mkt= 80.1% | TDdefΔ=-23pp | dogTD=+2.6/15 att=+6.4/15 | dogCTRL=+3.7m/15 | dogSUB=+0.4/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+0.8/15 | sigDiffΔ=-0.31/min
2024-11-23 | Feng Xiaocan           lost to Shi Ming               | mkt= 79.9% | TDdefΔ=NApp | dogTD=NA/15 att=NA/15 | dogCTRL=NAm/15 | dogSUB=NA/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=NA/15 | sigDiffΔ=NA/min
2019-09-28 | Macy Chiasson          lost to Lina Lansberg          | mkt= 78.3% | TDdefΔ=+38pp | dogTD=+0.6/15 att=+2.2/15 | dogCTRL=+5.0m/15 | dogSUB=+0.2/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=-0.6/15 | sigDiffΔ=+3.81/min
2011-09-24 | Ben Rothwell           lost to Mark Hunt              | mkt= 76.6% | TDdefΔ=-67pp | dogTD=+1.9/15 att=+1.9/15 | dogCTRL=+1.2m/15 | dogSUB=+0.0/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+1.6/15 | sigDiffΔ=-3.19/min
2010-11-13 | Nick Osipczak          lost to Duane Ludwig           | mkt= 74.6% | TDdefΔ=+18pp | dogTD=+0.0/15 att=+0.0/15 | dogCTRL=+3.7m/15 | dogSUB=+0.0/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+0.9/15 | sigDiffΔ=-1.07/min
2014-03-23 | Mairbek Taisumov       lost to Michel Prazeres        | mkt= 74.5% | TDdefΔ=+60pp | dogTD=+5.0/15 att=+13.5/15 | dogCTRL=+6.7m/15 | dogSUB=+0.0/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+0.0/15 | sigDiffΔ=+1.63/min
2018-12-15 | Kevin Lee              lost to Al Iaquinta            | mkt= 74.3% | TDdefΔ=-2pp | dogTD=+1.0/15 att=+3.4/15 | dogCTRL=+1.3m/15 | dogSUB=+0.4/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+2.4/15 | sigDiffΔ=+0.86/min
2014-09-20 | Alex Caceres           lost to Masanori Kanehara      | mkt= 73.2% | TDdefΔ=NApp | dogTD=NA/15 att=NA/15 | dogCTRL=NAm/15 | dogSUB=NA/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=NA/15 | sigDiffΔ=NA/min
2013-08-31 | Kyung Ho Kang          lost to Chico Camus            | mkt= 68.4% | TDdefΔ=NApp | dogTD=+1.7/15 att=+2.8/15 | dogCTRL=+9.6m/15 | dogSUB=+0.6/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+3.3/15 | sigDiffΔ=-1.57/min
2013-03-02 | Stefan Struve          lost to Mark Hunt              | mkt= 65.9% | TDdefΔ=-56pp | dogTD=+1.8/15 att=+3.0/15 | dogCTRL=+4.3m/15 | dogSUB=+0.6/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=-1.2/15 | sigDiffΔ=-2.08/min
2012-08-04 | Josh Grispi            lost to Rani Yahya             | mkt= 65.5% | TDdefΔ=NApp | dogTD=+1.5/15 att=+8.0/15 | dogCTRL=+3.9m/15 | dogSUB=+1.0/15 | fav-vs-dog TDΔ=+1.7/15 | sigDiffΔ=-5.16/min

VALIDATED WRESTLING FILTERS — IMPROVE CORE ROI + POSITIVE BOTH ERAS
==============================================================================================================================
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -20pp                             n= 70 ROI= +15.75% | pre2020= +11.09% | 2020+= +24.68% | lift=+3.65pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          n= 75 ROI= +14.88% | pre2020=  +9.58% | 2020+= +24.89% | lift=+2.79pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          n= 74 ROI= +14.73% | pre2020=  +9.23% | 2020+= +24.89% | lift=+2.63pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog TD>=1.5/15                          n= 74 ROI= +14.73% | pre2020=  +9.23% | 2020+= +24.89% | lift=+2.63pp
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -30pp                             n= 72 ROI= +14.53% | pre2020=  +9.45% | 2020+= +24.68% | lift=+2.43pp
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -15pp                             n= 65 ROI= +14.36% | pre2020=  +8.82% | 2020+= +24.48% | lift=+2.26pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-20pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         n= 79 ROI= +14.29% | pre2020=  +8.42% | 2020+= +25.61% | lift=+2.20pp
exclude if favorite TD-defense diff <= -25pp                             n= 71 ROI= +14.12% | pre2020=  +8.73% | 2020+= +24.68% | lift=+2.02pp
exclude if worse TD defense AND worse striking differential              n= 72 ROI= +14.04% | pre2020=  +8.14% | 2020+= +25.14% | lift=+1.94pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-10pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         n= 76 ROI= +13.53% | pre2020=  +6.88% | 2020+= +25.61% | lift=+1.44pp
exclude if TDdef diff<=-15pp AND dog ctrl>=3m/15                         n= 76 ROI= +13.53% | pre2020=  +6.88% | 2020+= +25.61% | lift=+1.44pp

COMBINED STRIKING + WRESTLING FILTERS
==============================================================================================================================
exclude if sigDiff<=-1.0/min OR TDdef<=-20pp                             n= 62 win= 91.9% ROI= +19.93% lift=+7.83pp | pre= +17.53% recent= +24.29%
exclude if sigDiff<=-0.75/min OR TDdef<=-20pp                            n= 60 win= 91.7% ROI= +19.53% lift=+7.43pp | pre= +17.39% recent= +23.51%
exclude if sigDef<=-10pp OR TDdef<=-20pp                                 n= 57 win= 91.2% ROI= +19.05% lift=+6.96pp | pre= +16.70% recent= +23.41%
exclude if sigDiff<=-1.0/min OR TDdef<=-15pp                             n= 57 win= 91.2% ROI= +18.71% lift=+6.61pp | pre= +15.59% recent= +24.05%
exclude if sigDiff<=-1.25/min OR TDdef<=-20pp                            n= 65 win= 90.8% ROI= +18.45% lift=+6.35pp | pre= +15.46% recent= +24.29%
exclude if sigDiff<=-0.75/min OR TDdef<=-15pp                            n= 55 win= 90.9% ROI= +18.23% lift=+6.13pp | pre= +15.39% recent= +23.21%
exclude if sigDef<=-12.5pp OR TDdef<=-20pp                               n= 60 win= 90.0% ROI= +17.71% lift=+5.61pp | pre= +14.85% recent= +23.41%
exclude if sigDiff<=-1.25/min OR TDdef<=-15pp                            n= 60 win= 90.0% ROI= +17.17% lift=+5.07pp | pre= +13.46% recent= +24.05%
exclude if sigDiff<=-1.25/min OR TDdef<=-10pp                            n= 57 win= 89.5% ROI= +16.24% lift=+4.14pp | pre= +13.19% recent= +22.35%
exclude if sigDef<=-12.5pp OR TDdef<=-15pp                               n= 55 win= 89.1% ROI= +16.24% lift=+4.14pp | pre= +12.62% recent= +23.09%
exclude if sigDef<=-12.5pp OR dogTD>=3.0/15                              n= 55 win= 89.1% ROI= +16.10% lift=+4.00pp | pre= +12.17% recent= +22.96%
