STRUCTURAL EDGE — PRE-FIGHT PERFORMANCE FAILURE ANALYSIS
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Core Structural Edge fights: 83
Both fighters have prior UFC history: 73
Covered record: 63-10
All features below use ONLY fights dated before the target fight.

WINNERS VS LOSERS — FAVORITE MINUS UNDERDOG DIFFERENCES
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ufc_fights             W mean=  -3.143 med=  -2.000 | L mean=  +2.200 med=  +0.000 | delta=  -5.343
career_win_pct         W mean=  +0.105 med=  +0.067 | L mean=  +0.020 med=  +0.000 | delta=  +0.085
last3_win_pct          W mean=  +0.140 med=  +0.000 | L mean=  +0.056 med=  +0.000 | delta=  +0.085
last5_win_pct          W mean=  +0.127 med=  +0.067 | L mean=  +0.052 med=  +0.000 | delta=  +0.075
sig_land_pm            W mean=  +0.785 med=  +0.662 | L mean=  -0.054 med=  +0.172 | delta=  +0.839
sig_abs_pm             W mean=  -0.247 med=  -0.165 | L mean=  +0.408 med=  -0.241 | delta=  -0.655
sig_diff_pm            W mean=  +1.032 med=  +0.906 | L mean=  -0.462 med=  -0.695 | delta=  +1.494
sig_acc                W mean=  +0.012 med=  +0.009 | L mean=  -0.010 med=  -0.006 | delta=  +0.022
sig_def                W mean=  +0.013 med=  +0.016 | L mean=  -0.120 med=  -0.114 | delta=  +0.133
td_land_p15            W mean=  +0.053 med=  -0.007 | L mean=  +0.883 med=  +0.871 | delta=  -0.831
td_att_p15             W mean=  -0.021 med=  -0.532 | L mean=  +0.847 med=  +0.864 | delta=  -0.868
td_acc                 W mean=  +0.011 med=  -0.018 | L mean=  +0.052 med=  +0.141 | delta=  -0.041
td_def                 W mean=  +0.054 med=  +0.017 | L mean=  -0.086 med=  -0.127 | delta=  +0.140
sub_att_p15            W mean=  +0.376 med=  +0.167 | L mean=  +0.866 med=  +0.679 | delta=  -0.489
ctrl_p15               W mean=  -0.082 med=  +0.121 | L mean=  +1.198 med=  +0.974 | delta=  -1.280
kd_p15                 W mean=  +0.495 med=  +0.000 | L mean=  -0.180 med=  +0.000 | delta=  +0.674
finish_win_pct         W mean=  +0.121 med=  +0.067 | L mean=  +0.170 med=  +0.133 | delta=  -0.049
layoff_days            W mean=-102.143 med= -21.000 | L mean= -18.600 med= -20.000 | delta= -83.543

STRUCTURAL EDGE LOSSES — WHAT THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY SAID BEFORE THE FIGHT
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2012-11-10 | Rich Franklin           lost to Cung Le                 | market= 80.4% | UFCexp +17 | last3 +17pp | sigDiff +2.47 | sigDef +3.3pp | tdDef -35.8pp | td/15 -0.16 | sub/15 +0.15 | finish +71.4pp | layoff +14d
2016-03-19 | Antonio Carlos Junior   lost to Daniel Kelly            | market= 80.1% | UFCexp +0 | last3 +0pp | sigDiff -0.31 | sigDef -21.6pp | tdDef -23.3pp | td/15 +0.80 | sub/15 +0.58 | finish +16.7pp | layoff -26d
2024-11-23 | Feng Xiaocan            lost to Shi Ming                | market= 79.9% | UFCexp NA | last3 NApp | sigDiff NA | sigDef NApp | tdDef NApp | td/15 NA | sub/15 NA | finish NApp | layoff NAd
2019-09-28 | Macy Chiasson           lost to Lina Lansberg           | market= 78.3% | UFCexp -3 | last3 +33pp | sigDiff +3.81 | sigDef -2.0pp | tdDef +37.9pp | td/15 -0.60 | sub/15 +1.63 | finish +100.0pp | layoff +28d
2011-09-24 | Ben Rothwell            lost to Mark Hunt               | market= 76.6% | UFCexp +0 | last3 +0pp | sigDiff -3.19 | sigDef -38.9pp | tdDef -66.7pp | td/15 +1.64 | sub/15 +1.43 | finish -100.0pp | layoff +259d
2010-11-13 | Nick Osipczak           lost to Duane Ludwig            | market= 74.6% | UFCexp +0 | last3 +0pp | sigDiff -1.07 | sigDef -21.5pp | tdDef +17.7pp | td/15 +0.95 | sub/15 +1.26 | finish +50.0pp | layoff -160d
2014-03-23 | Mairbek Taisumov        lost to Michel Prazeres         | market= 74.5% | UFCexp -1 | last3 +50pp | sigDiff +1.63 | sigDef +11.5pp | tdDef +60.0pp | td/15 +0.00 | sub/15 +0.00 | finish +0.0pp | layoff -105d
2018-12-15 | Kevin Lee               lost to Al Iaquinta             | market= 74.3% | UFCexp +2 | last3 +0pp | sigDiff +0.86 | sigDef -10.1pp | tdDef -2.1pp | td/15 +2.35 | sub/15 +0.78 | finish +10.0pp | layoff -14d
2014-09-20 | Alex Caceres            lost to Masanori Kanehara       | market= 73.2% | UFCexp NA | last3 NApp | sigDiff NA | sigDef NApp | tdDef NApp | td/15 NA | sub/15 NA | finish NApp | layoff NAd
2013-08-31 | Kyung Ho Kang           lost to Chico Camus             | market= 68.4% | UFCexp -1 | last3 NApp | sigDiff -1.57 | sigDef -12.7pp | tdDef NApp | td/15 +3.32 | sub/15 -0.56 | finish +0.0pp | layoff -28d
2013-03-02 | Stefan Struve           lost to Mark Hunt               | market= 65.9% | UFCexp +8 | last3 +0pp | sigDiff -2.08 | sigDef -18.1pp | tdDef -56.4pp | td/15 -1.15 | sub/15 +3.32 | finish +22.2pp | layoff -217d
2012-08-04 | Josh Grispi             lost to Rani Yahya              | market= 65.5% | UFCexp +0 | last3 -50pp | sigDiff -5.16 | sigDef -9.4pp | tdDef NApp | td/15 +1.69 | sub/15 +0.06 | finish +0.0pp | layoff +63d

BEST SIMPLE PERFORMANCE EXCLUSIONS
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exclude if striking-defense diff <= -10pp                           -> n= 65 59-6 win= 90.8% ROI= +18.46% lift=+6.36pp | removed=18, loss= 33.3%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -1.0/min                 -> n= 72 65-7 win= 90.3% ROI= +17.97% lift=+5.87pp | removed=11, loss= 45.5%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= +0.0/min                 -> n= 62 56-6 win= 90.3% ROI= +17.71% lift=+5.61pp | removed=21, loss= 28.6%
exclude if striking-defense diff <= -5pp                            -> n= 53 48-5 win= 90.6% ROI= +17.47% lift=+5.37pp | removed=30, loss= 23.3%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -0.5/min                 -> n= 68 61-7 win= 89.7% ROI= +17.18% lift=+5.08pp | removed=15, loss= 33.3%
exclude if striking-defense diff <= -20pp                           -> n= 79 70-9 win= 88.6% ROI= +16.20% lift=+4.10pp | removed= 4, loss= 75.0%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -2.0/min                 -> n= 78 69-9 win= 88.5% ROI= +15.85% lift=+3.75pp | removed= 5, loss= 60.0%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -20pp                           -> n= 70 62-8 win= 88.6% ROI= +15.75% lift=+3.65pp | removed=13, loss= 30.8%
exclude favorite layoff >= 365 days                                 -> n= 78 68-10 win= 87.2% ROI= +14.56% lift=+2.46pp | removed= 5, loss= 40.0%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -30pp                           -> n= 72 63-9 win= 87.5% ROI= +14.53% lift=+2.43pp | removed=11, loss= 27.3%
exclude if worse striking differential AND worse TD defense         -> n= 72 63-9 win= 87.5% ROI= +14.04% lift=+1.94pp | removed=11, loss= 27.3%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -10pp                           -> n= 61 53-8 win= 86.9% ROI= +13.04% lift=+0.94pp | removed=22, loss= 18.2%
exclude if last3 win-rate diff <= -0.50                             -> n= 79 68-11 win= 86.1% ROI= +12.58% lift=+0.48pp | removed= 4, loss= 25.0%
exclude if last3 win-rate diff <= -0.34                             -> n= 79 68-11 win= 86.1% ROI= +12.58% lift=+0.48pp | removed= 4, loss= 25.0%
exclude favorite with 0 prior UFC fights                            -> n= 79 68-11 win= 86.1% ROI= +12.53% lift=+0.43pp | removed= 4, loss= 25.0%
exclude if worse recent form AND worse striking differential        -> n= 79 68-11 win= 86.1% ROI= +12.51% lift=+0.41pp | removed= 4, loss= 25.0%
exclude if finish-rate diff <= -0.50                                -> n= 77 66-11 win= 85.7% ROI= +12.28% lift=+0.18pp | removed= 6, loss= 16.7%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= +0pp                            -> n= 52 45-7 win= 86.5% ROI= +11.69% lift=-0.41pp | removed=31, loss= 16.1%
exclude if submission-attempt diff <= -1.0/15                       -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.52% lift=-0.58pp | removed= 3, loss=  0.0%
exclude if submission-attempt diff <= -0.5/15                       -> n= 73 62-11 win= 84.9% ROI= +11.45% lift=-0.65pp | removed=10, loss= 10.0%
exclude if last3 win-rate diff <= -0.25                             -> n= 72 61-11 win= 84.7% ROI= +10.57% lift=-1.53pp | removed=11, loss=  9.1%
exclude if finish-rate diff <= -0.25                                -> n= 72 61-11 win= 84.7% ROI= +10.44% lift=-1.66pp | removed=11, loss=  9.1%
exclude if less UFC experience AND worse striking differential      -> n= 72 61-11 win= 84.7% ROI= +10.14% lift=-1.96pp | removed=11, loss=  9.1%
exclude if takedown-landed diff <= -2.0/15                          -> n= 74 62-12 win= 83.8% ROI= +10.03% lift=-2.07pp | removed= 9, loss=  0.0%
exclude if takedown-landed diff <= -0.5/15                          -> n= 56 46-10 win= 82.1% ROI=  +7.49% lift=-4.61pp | removed=27, loss=  7.4%
exclude if takedown-landed diff <= -1.0/15                          -> n= 61 50-11 win= 82.0% ROI=  +7.43% lift=-4.67pp | removed=22, loss=  4.5%
exclude if submission-attempt diff <= +0.0/15                       -> n= 54 44-10 win= 81.5% ROI=  +6.82% lift=-5.28pp | removed=29, loss=  6.9%
exclude if favorite UFC experience diff <= -5                       -> n= 60 48-12 win= 80.0% ROI=  +4.81% lift=-7.29pp | removed=23, loss=  0.0%
exclude if favorite UFC experience diff <= -3                       -> n= 55 44-11 win= 80.0% ROI=  +4.56% lift=-7.54pp | removed=28, loss=  3.6%
exclude if favorite UFC experience diff <= -2                       -> n= 50 39-11 win= 78.0% ROI=  +1.75% lift=-10.35pp | removed=33, loss=  3.0%

VALIDATION-AWARE FILTERS — IMPROVE CORE ROI + POSITIVE PRE-2020 AND 2020+
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exclude if striking-defense diff <= -10pp                           n= 65 ROI= +18.46% | pre2020 n=43 ROI= +15.74% | 2020+ n=22 ROI= +23.76%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -1.0/min                 n= 72 ROI= +17.97% | pre2020 n=47 ROI= +14.05% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +25.34%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= +0.0/min                 n= 62 ROI= +17.71% | pre2020 n=39 ROI= +13.70% | 2020+ n=23 ROI= +24.49%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -0.5/min                 n= 68 ROI= +17.18% | pre2020 n=44 ROI= +13.08% | 2020+ n=24 ROI= +24.70%
exclude if striking-defense diff <= -20pp                           n= 79 ROI= +16.20% | pre2020 n=53 ROI= +11.56% | 2020+ n=26 ROI= +25.66%
exclude if sig-strike differential edge <= -2.0/min                 n= 78 ROI= +15.85% | pre2020 n=52 ROI= +10.95% | 2020+ n=26 ROI= +25.66%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -20pp                           n= 70 ROI= +15.75% | pre2020 n=46 ROI= +11.09% | 2020+ n=24 ROI= +24.68%
exclude favorite layoff >= 365 days                                 n= 78 ROI= +14.56% | pre2020 n=53 ROI=  +9.22% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +25.88%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -30pp                           n= 72 ROI= +14.53% | pre2020 n=48 ROI=  +9.45% | 2020+ n=24 ROI= +24.68%
exclude if worse striking differential AND worse TD defense         n= 72 ROI= +14.04% | pre2020 n=47 ROI=  +8.14% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +25.14%
exclude if takedown-defense diff <= -10pp                           n= 61 ROI= +13.04% | pre2020 n=41 ROI=  +8.45% | 2020+ n=20 ROI= +22.45%
exclude if last3 win-rate diff <= -0.50                             n= 79 ROI= +12.58% | pre2020 n=54 ROI=  +6.90% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +24.85%
exclude if last3 win-rate diff <= -0.34                             n= 79 ROI= +12.58% | pre2020 n=54 ROI=  +6.90% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +24.85%
exclude if worse recent form AND worse striking differential        n= 79 ROI= +12.51% | pre2020 n=54 ROI=  +6.80% | 2020+ n=25 ROI= +24.85%
