STRUCTURAL EDGE — WIN VS LOSS FAILURE ANALYSIS
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Core sample: 83 bets | 71 wins / 12 losses | 85.54% wins | ROI=+12.10% | P/L=$+1,004.18
Rule: market >=65% + favorite >=2y younger + favorite >=6in reach advantage

WINNERS VS LOSERS — NUMERIC AVERAGES / MEDIANS
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Market probability               W mean=  0.74 med=  0.74 | L mean=  0.74 med=  0.75
Favorite age                     W mean= 27.91 med= 27.75 | L mean= 27.00 med= 25.99
Younger advantage (years)        W mean=  6.04 med=  5.98 | L mean=  6.98 med=  6.72
Reach advantage (inches)         W mean=  7.00 med=  6.00 | L mean=  7.08 med=  6.50
Height advantage (inches)        W mean=  2.99 med=  3.00 | L mean=  4.25 med=  4.00

RISK FLAGS INSIDE STRUCTURAL EDGE
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favorite age >=30              n= 23 losses= 1 loss%=  4.3% (lift -10.1pp) flag ROI= +25.89% | REMOVE -> n= 60 win= 81.7% ROI=  +6.81% (lift -5.29pp)
favorite age >=32              n= 10 losses= 1 loss%= 10.0% (lift  -4.5pp) flag ROI= +21.16% | REMOVE -> n= 73 win= 84.9% ROI= +10.86% (lift -1.24pp)
younger advantage >=5y         n= 50 losses= 9 loss%= 18.0% (lift  +3.5pp) flag ROI=  +6.46% | REMOVE -> n= 33 win= 90.9% ROI= +20.65% (lift +8.55pp)
younger advantage >=8y         n= 20 losses= 3 loss%= 15.0% (lift  +0.5pp) flag ROI= +11.77% | REMOVE -> n= 63 win= 85.7% ROI= +12.20% (lift +0.10pp)
reach advantage >=7in          n= 40 losses= 6 loss%= 15.0% (lift  +0.5pp) flag ROI= +10.44% | REMOVE -> n= 43 win= 86.0% ROI= +13.64% (lift +1.55pp)
reach advantage >=8in          n= 23 losses= 2 loss%=  8.7% (lift  -5.8pp) flag ROI= +17.13% | REMOVE -> n= 60 win= 83.3% ROI= +10.17% (lift -1.93pp)
height disadvantage            n=  5 losses= 1 loss%= 20.0% (lift  +5.5pp) flag ROI=  +7.39% | REMOVE -> n= 78 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.40% (lift +0.30pp)
height <= opponent             n= 10 losses= 1 loss%= 10.0% (lift  -4.5pp) flag ROI= +20.23% | REMOVE -> n= 73 win= 84.9% ROI= +10.98% (lift -1.11pp)
height advantage >=2in         n= 63 losses=11 loss%= 17.5% (lift  +3.0pp) flag ROI=  +7.87% | REMOVE -> n= 20 win= 95.0% ROI= +25.43% (lift +13.33pp)
market >=70%                   n= 58 losses= 9 loss%= 15.5% (lift  +1.1pp) flag ROI=  +6.50% | REMOVE -> n= 25 win= 88.0% ROI= +25.09% (lift +12.99pp)
market >=75%                   n= 34 losses= 5 loss%= 14.7% (lift  +0.2pp) flag ROI=  +3.32% | REMOVE -> n= 49 win= 85.7% ROI= +18.19% (lift +6.09pp)
market >=80%                   n= 14 losses= 2 loss%= 14.3% (lift  -0.2pp) flag ROI=  -1.47% | REMOVE -> n= 69 win= 85.5% ROI= +14.85% (lift +2.75pp)
stance mismatch                n= 23 losses= 3 loss%= 13.0% (lift  -1.4pp) flag ROI= +12.52% | REMOVE -> n= 60 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.94% (lift -0.16pp)

BY DIVISION
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Bantamweight             n=  6  4- 2 win= 66.7% ROI= -14.95% P/L=$-89.72
Featherweight            n=  4  3- 1 win= 75.0% ROI=  +4.44% P/L=$+17.77
Flyweight                n=  2  2- 0 win=100.0% ROI= +16.50% P/L=$+33.00
Heavyweight              n= 14 12- 2 win= 85.7% ROI= +11.28% P/L=$+157.90
Light Heavyweight        n=  6  6- 0 win=100.0% ROI= +23.44% P/L=$+140.65
Lightweight              n= 17 15- 2 win= 88.2% ROI= +17.59% P/L=$+298.95
Middleweight             n=  7  5- 2 win= 71.4% ROI=  -3.62% P/L=$-25.33
Welterweight             n= 20 19- 1 win= 95.0% ROI= +25.14% P/L=$+502.74
Women's Bantamweight     n=  1  0- 1 win=  0.0% ROI=-100.00% P/L=$-100.00
Women's Flyweight        n=  3  3- 0 win=100.0% ROI= +29.55% P/L=$+88.64
Women's Strawweight      n=  3  2- 1 win= 66.7% ROI=  -6.81% P/L=$-20.42

ALL STRUCTURAL EDGE LOSSES
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2012-11-10 | Rich Franklin            lost to Cung Le                  | market= 80.4% line=-450 | favAge=38.1 dogAge=40.5 | younger+2.4y | reach+6.0in | height=4.0in | Southpaw/Southpaw | Middleweight
2016-03-19 | Antonio Carlos Junior    lost to Daniel Kelly             | market= 80.1% line=-485 | favAge=26.0 dogAge=38.4 | younger+12.4y | reach+9.0in | height=2.0in | Orthodox/Southpaw | Middleweight
2024-11-23 | Feng Xiaocan             lost to Shi Ming                 | market= 79.9% line=-490 | favAge=22.9 dogAge=30.0 | younger+7.1y | reach+6.0in | height=5.0in | Southpaw/Orthodox | Women's Strawweight
2019-09-28 | Macy Chiasson            lost to Lina Lansberg            | market= 78.3% line=-430 | favAge=28.2 dogAge=37.5 | younger+9.4y | reach+7.0in | height=4.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Women's Bantamweight
2011-09-24 | Ben Rothwell             lost to Mark Hunt                | market= 76.6% line=-355 | favAge=29.9 dogAge=37.5 | younger+7.6y | reach+6.0in | height=6.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Heavyweight
2010-11-13 | Nick Osipczak            lost to Duane Ludwig             | market= 74.6% line=-340 | favAge=25.9 dogAge=32.3 | younger+6.4y | reach+6.0in | height=4.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Welterweight
2014-03-23 | Mairbek Taisumov         lost to Michel Prazeres          | market= 74.5% line=-315 | favAge=25.6 dogAge=32.7 | younger+7.0y | reach+6.0in | height=3.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Lightweight
2018-12-15 | Kevin Lee                lost to Al Iaquinta              | market= 74.3% line=-335 | favAge=26.3 dogAge=31.6 | younger+5.3y | reach+7.0in | height=-1.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Lightweight
2014-09-20 | Alex Caceres             lost to Masanori Kanehara        | market= 73.2% line=-295 | favAge=26.3 dogAge=31.8 | younger+5.6y | reach+6.0in | height=3.0in | Southpaw/Orthodox | Bantamweight
2013-08-31 | Kyung Ho Kang            lost to Chico Camus              | market= 68.4% line=-230 | favAge=26.0 dogAge=28.6 | younger+2.6y | reach+7.0in | height=3.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Bantamweight
2013-03-02 | Stefan Struve            lost to Mark Hunt                | market= 65.9% line=-205 | favAge=25.0 dogAge=38.9 | younger+13.9y | reach+12.0in | height=13.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Heavyweight
2012-08-04 | Josh Grispi              lost to Rani Yahya               | market= 65.5% line=-200 | favAge=23.8 dogAge=27.9 | younger+4.1y | reach+7.0in | height=5.0in | Orthodox/Orthodox | Featherweight

BEST SIMPLE EXCLUSIONS — PRESERVE >=60 BETS
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exclude division Bantamweight                 -> n= 77 67-10 win= 87.0% ROI= +14.21% (lift +2.11pp) | removed  6, losses= 2 ( 33.3% loss)
exclude division Middleweight                 -> n= 76 66-10 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.55% (lift +1.45pp) | removed  7, losses= 2 ( 28.6% loss)
exclude age>=35 OR height<0                   -> n= 76 66-10 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.46% (lift +1.36pp) | removed  7, losses= 2 ( 28.6% loss)
exclude division Women's Strawweight          -> n= 80 69-11 win= 86.2% ROI= +12.81% (lift +0.71pp) | removed  3, losses= 1 ( 33.3% loss)
exclude division Featherweight                -> n= 79 68-11 win= 86.1% ROI= +12.49% (lift +0.39pp) | removed  4, losses= 1 ( 25.0% loss)
exclude height advantage <= -1in              -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.40% (lift +0.30pp) | removed  5, losses= 1 ( 20.0% loss)
exclude division Heavyweight                  -> n= 69 59-10 win= 85.5% ROI= +12.26% (lift +0.17pp) | removed 14, losses= 2 ( 14.3% loss)
exclude age>=32 AND reach<7                   -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.26% (lift +0.16pp) | removed  5, losses= 1 ( 20.0% loss)
exclude favorite age >= 33                    -> n= 78 67-11 win= 85.9% ROI= +12.08% (lift -0.02pp) | removed  5, losses= 1 ( 20.0% loss)
exclude division Women's Flyweight            -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.44% (lift -0.65pp) | removed  3, losses= 0 (  0.0% loss)
exclude stance mismatch AND height<=0         -> n= 80 68-12 win= 85.0% ROI= +11.34% (lift -0.76pp) | removed  3, losses= 0 (  0.0% loss)
exclude division Light Heavyweight            -> n= 77 65-12 win= 84.4% ROI= +11.21% (lift -0.88pp) | removed  6, losses= 0 (  0.0% loss)
exclude height advantage <= 0in               -> n= 73 62-11 win= 84.9% ROI= +10.98% (lift -1.11pp) | removed 10, losses= 1 ( 10.0% loss)
exclude favorite age >= 32                    -> n= 73 62-11 win= 84.9% ROI= +10.86% (lift -1.24pp) | removed 10, losses= 1 ( 10.0% loss)
exclude division Lightweight                  -> n= 66 56-10 win= 84.8% ROI= +10.69% (lift -1.41pp) | removed 17, losses= 2 ( 11.8% loss)
exclude favorite age >= 31                    -> n= 70 59-11 win= 84.3% ROI= +10.09% (lift -2.00pp) | removed 13, losses= 1 (  7.7% loss)
exclude age>=32 AND market<70                 -> n= 77 65-12 win= 84.4% ROI=  +9.79% (lift -2.31pp) | removed  6, losses= 0 (  0.0% loss)
exclude division Welterweight                 -> n= 63 52-11 win= 82.5% ROI=  +7.96% (lift -4.14pp) | removed 20, losses= 1 (  5.0% loss)
exclude height advantage <= 1in               -> n= 63 52-11 win= 82.5% ROI=  +7.87% (lift -4.23pp) | removed 20, losses= 1 (  5.0% loss)
exclude favorite age >= 30                    -> n= 60 49-11 win= 81.7% ROI=  +6.81% (lift -5.29pp) | removed 23, losses= 1 (  4.3% loss)

CONSERVATIVE FILTER CANDIDATES
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exclude division Bantamweight                 n= 77 win= 87.0% ROI= +14.21% lift=+2.11pp
exclude division Middleweight                 n= 76 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.55% lift=+1.45pp
exclude age>=35 OR height<0                   n= 76 win= 86.8% ROI= +13.46% lift=+1.36pp
