UFC — 70% BET STRATEGY + MARKET-ANCHORED AGE MODEL
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PART 1 — WHAT IF I BET $50 ON EVERY HISTORICAL AGE-MODEL PICK >=70%?
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Bets: 2
Wins / losses: 2 / 0
Win rate: 100.00%
Total staked: $100.00
Net profit/loss: $81.17
Final returned cash: $181.17
ROI: 81.17%
Average model confidence: 72.21%
Average sportsbook no-vig probability: 54.23%
Maximum drawdown: $35.71
Longest losing streak: 0

AGE-MODEL CONFIDENCE THRESHOLDS ($50 flat bet each)
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age model >= 70.0%      bets=   2 win= 100.00% ROI=   81.17% P/L=      $81.17
age model >= 72.5%      bets=   1 win= 100.00% ROI=   90.91% P/L=      $45.45
age model >= 75.0%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 77.5%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 80.0%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 82.5%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 85.0%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 87.5%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
age model >= 90.0%      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00

70%+ CONFIDENCE BUCKETS
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70-74.9%     bets=   2 win= 100.00% ROI=   81.17% P/L=      $81.17

COMPARISON — BOOKMAKER MARKET FAVORITE >=70% (also $50 each)
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Bets: 1,817 | win=80.02% | ROI=1.58% | P/L=$1,437.26

PART 2 — MARKET-ANCHORED AGE MODEL
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This new model starts with the sportsbook's no-vig probability and
allows age + age-gap + division + sex to make a REGULARIZED adjustment.
It is evaluated strictly walk-forward by calendar year.

PREDICTION QUALITY (lower log loss / Brier is better)
Raw market:          logloss=0.6140  brier=0.2130  auc=0.721
Market recalibrated: logloss=0.6136  brier=0.2130  auc=0.721
Market + age anchor: logloss=0.6139  brier=0.2130  auc=0.721
Old age-only model:  logloss=0.6851  brier=0.2460  auc=0.582

MARKET-ANCHORED BETTING RESULTS ($50 flat bet)
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anchor edge >= 0.0pp     bets=3218 win=  66.78% ROI=   -0.05% P/L=     $-85.44
anchor edge >= 1.0pp     bets=2410 win=  67.34% ROI=    0.96% P/L=   $1,158.24
anchor edge >= 2.0pp     bets=1784 win=  67.43% ROI=    1.87% P/L=   $1,666.59
anchor edge >= 3.0pp     bets=1186 win=  65.77% ROI=    0.92% P/L=     $544.53
anchor edge >= 5.0pp     bets= 421 win=  61.76% ROI=   -2.25% P/L=    $-472.91
anchor edge >= 7.5pp     bets= 100 win=  62.00% ROI=    2.58% P/L=     $129.01
anchor edge >= 10.0pp    bets=  19 win=  63.16% ROI=   15.30% P/L=     $145.37

IMPORTANT
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The 70% strategy above uses the leakage-safe historical age-model
probabilities created in the prior yearly walk-forward backtest.
It does NOT use today's fully trained model retroactively.

Historical sportsbook prices are archival public lines and may not be
the exact closing line or best price available at every book.

The new market-anchored model should replace the live age-only pricing
ONLY if its walk-forward metrics genuinely improve on the raw market.
