UFC HYBRID RULE — HISTORICAL PRICE / EXPENSIVENESS ANALYSIS
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Base population:
  sportsbook no-vig favorite >=70%
  AND favorite >=3 years younger
  flat stake $50

Total qualifying fights: 749
Win rate: 82.91%
ROI: 5.10%
P/L: $1,910.32

ROI BY ACTUAL FAVORITE MONEYLINE
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-500 or worse      bets= 182 win=  89.01% ROI=    3.20% P/L=     $290.88
-400 to -499       bets= 102 win=  88.24% ROI=    8.11% P/L=     $413.67
-300 to -399       bets= 285 win=  79.65% ROI=    3.01% P/L=     $428.93
-250 to -299       bets= 152 win=  80.26% ROI=    9.90% P/L=     $752.34
-200 to -249       bets=  28 win=  71.43% ROI=    1.75% P/L=      $24.50

PRACTICAL MAX-LINE TESTS
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Bet only at -200 or better      bets=   0 win=     n/a ROI=      n/a P/L=       $0.00
Bet only at -225 or better      bets=   1 win= 100.00% ROI=   45.00% P/L=      $22.50
Bet only at -250 or better      bets=  28 win=  71.43% ROI=    1.75% P/L=      $24.50
Bet only at -275 or better      bets= 104 win=  78.85% ROI=   10.03% P/L=     $521.67
Bet only at -300 or better      bets= 180 win=  78.89% ROI=    8.63% P/L=     $776.84
Bet only at -325 or better      bets= 274 win=  78.83% ROI=    7.10% P/L=     $972.46
Bet only at -350 or better      bets= 355 win=  78.31% ROI=    5.30% P/L=     $940.85
Bet only at -400 or better      bets= 465 win=  79.35% ROI=    5.19% P/L=   $1,205.77
Bet only at -450 or better      bets= 518 win=  80.69% ROI=    6.09% P/L=   $1,576.84
Bet only at -500 or better      bets= 567 win=  80.95% ROI=    5.71% P/L=   $1,619.44

ROI BY PRICE TAX VS NO-VIG MARKET
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<=0.5pp tax    bets= 170 avg tax=-0.61pp ROI=    8.34% P/L=     $709.00
0.5-1.0pp      bets=  94 avg tax=0.75pp ROI=    5.01% P/L=     $235.50
1.0-1.5pp      bets= 146 avg tax=1.27pp ROI=    6.76% P/L=     $493.52
1.5-2.0pp      bets=  86 avg tax=1.68pp ROI=    0.76% P/L=      $32.68
2.0-3.0pp      bets= 100 avg tax=2.60pp ROI=   -0.18% P/L=      $-8.86
3.0-4.0pp      bets=  70 avg tax=3.47pp ROI=    6.73% P/L=     $235.54
4.0pp+         bets=  83 avg tax=5.98pp ROI=    5.13% P/L=     $212.94

ROI BY MARKET PROBABILITY
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70-74.9%   bets= 294 win=  78.23% ROI=    5.44% P/L=     $799.12
75-79.9%   bets= 249 win=  85.54% ROI=    7.99% P/L=     $995.20
80-84.9%   bets= 144 win=  85.42% ROI=    1.88% P/L=     $135.12
85-89.9%   bets=  48 win=  89.58% ROI=    1.28% P/L=      $30.72
90-94.9%   bets=  14 win=  85.71% ROI=   -7.12% P/L=     $-49.84

IMPORTANT DATA NOTE
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The historical UFC odds datasets generally contain one archived moneyline
pair per fight, not the full multi-book consensus + best-line snapshot we
now have live. Therefore the line-band and max-line tests are the most
directly trustworthy historical price comparisons.

The 'price tax' analysis is secondary: its no-vig market probability is
usually derived from the same archived odds pair, so the favorite quote
naturally contains sportsbook vig. Use it to compare relative expense,
not as a historical replica of the current live price-status system.
