UFC HYBRID TEST — 70%+ SPORTSBOOK FAVORITES × AGE GAP
========================================================================

Definition:
  Start with fights where the historical sportsbook no-vig favorite
  had at least a 70% win probability.
  Then split those favorites by whether they were younger or older,
  and by the size of the age gap.
  Flat stake: $50 per bet.

Historical 70%+ favorite pool: 1,817 bets
Date range: 2007-06-23 to 2023-09-16

CORE RULES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
All market favorites >=70%             bets=1817 win=  80.02% ROI=    1.58% P/L=   $1,437.26
70%+ favorite is younger               bets=1185 win=  82.45% ROI=    4.60% P/L=   $2,726.37
70%+ favorite is older                 bets= 632 win=  75.47% ROI=   -4.08% P/L=  $-1,289.12
70%+ fighters same age (~0)            bets=  62 win=  70.97% ROI=   -8.58% P/L=    $-266.08
70%+ favorite younger by >= 2y         bets= 901 win=  82.24% ROI=    4.30% P/L=   $1,937.02
70%+ favorite older by >= 2y           bets= 380 win=  77.11% ROI=   -1.73% P/L=    $-328.32
70%+ favorite younger by >= 3y         bets= 749 win=  82.91% ROI=    5.10% P/L=   $1,910.32
70%+ favorite older by >= 3y           bets= 275 win=  76.00% ROI=   -2.95% P/L=    $-404.97
70%+ favorite younger by >= 5y         bets= 508 win=  82.48% ROI=    4.45% P/L=   $1,130.68
70%+ favorite older by >= 5y           bets= 136 win=  75.74% ROI=   -2.85% P/L=    $-193.86
70%+ favorite younger by >= 7y         bets= 288 win=  82.99% ROI=    4.72% P/L=     $680.37
70%+ favorite older by >= 7y           bets=  64 win=  76.56% ROI=   -1.29% P/L=     $-41.19
70%+ favorite younger by >= 10y        bets= 110 win=  82.73% ROI=    4.33% P/L=     $238.36
70%+ favorite older by >= 10y          bets=  13 win=  69.23% ROI=   -9.05% P/L=     $-58.81

AGE-GAP BUCKETS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Favorite older    0-1y    bets= 138 win=  74.64% ROI=   -5.46% P/L=    $-376.73
Favorite older    1-2y    bets= 114 win=  71.05% ROI=  -10.25% P/L=    $-584.06
Favorite older    2-3y    bets= 105 win=  80.00% ROI=    1.46% P/L=      $76.64
Favorite older    3-5y    bets= 139 win=  76.26% ROI=   -3.04% P/L=    $-211.10
Favorite older    5-7y    bets=  72 win=  75.00% ROI=   -4.24% P/L=    $-152.67
Favorite older    7-10y   bets=  51 win=  78.43% ROI=    0.69% P/L=      $17.62
Favorite older    10y+    bets=  13 win=  69.23% ROI=   -9.05% P/L=     $-58.81
Favorite younger  0-1y    bets= 140 win=  86.43% ROI=   10.44% P/L=     $731.03
Favorite younger  1-2y    bets= 144 win=  79.86% ROI=    0.81% P/L=      $58.33
Favorite younger  2-3y    bets= 152 win=  78.95% ROI=    0.35% P/L=      $26.70
Favorite younger  3-5y    bets= 241 win=  83.82% ROI=    6.47% P/L=     $779.63
Favorite younger  5-7y    bets= 220 win=  81.82% ROI=    4.09% P/L=     $450.31
Favorite younger  7-10y   bets= 178 win=  83.15% ROI=    4.97% P/L=     $442.01
Favorite younger  10y+    bets= 110 win=  82.73% ROI=    4.33% P/L=     $238.36

SPORTSBOOK-PROBABILITY BANDS × AGE SIDE
------------------------------------------------------------------------
70-74.9%   Favorite older    bets= 297 win=  67.34% ROI=   -9.58% P/L=  $-1,423.28
70-74.9%   Favorite younger  bets= 486 win=  77.57% ROI=    4.33% P/L=   $1,051.25
75-79.9%   Favorite older    bets= 192 win=  80.73% ROI=    1.60% P/L=     $154.03
75-79.9%   Favorite younger  bets= 394 win=  85.03% ROI=    7.32% P/L=   $1,442.56
80-84.9%   Favorite older    bets= 107 win=  85.05% ROI=    0.80% P/L=      $42.88
80-84.9%   Favorite younger  bets= 215 win=  85.12% ROI=    1.32% P/L=     $142.07
85-89.9%   Favorite older    bets=  32 win=  84.38% ROI=   -5.04% P/L=     $-80.59
85-89.9%   Favorite younger  bets=  72 win=  91.67% ROI=    3.44% P/L=     $123.84
90-94.9%   Favorite younger  bets=  18 win=  88.89% ROI=   -3.70% P/L=     $-33.34

INTERPRETATION
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The useful comparison is whether 70%+ favorites that ALSO have the
age advantage outperform the full 70%+ favorite pool.

Do not choose a threshold purely because it has the highest historical
ROI on a small sample. Prefer rules with a large number of bets and
similar behavior across multiple years.
