UFC ROBUSTNESS TEST — 70%+ MARKET FAVORITE & >=3 YEARS YOUNGER
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Rule: sportsbook no-vig favorite >= 70% AND
      favorite is at least 3 years younger.
Stake: $50 flat per bet.

PRIMARY TIME-SPLIT RESULTS
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ALL YEARS                    bets= 749 win=  82.91% ROI=    5.10% P/L=   $1,910.32 95%CI=[1.58%,8.49%]
OLDER (<2020)                bets= 525 win=  82.67% ROI=    4.67% P/L=   $1,224.85 95%CI=[0.42%,8.71%]
RECENT (2020-2023)           bets= 224 win=  83.48% ROI=    6.12% P/L=     $685.47 95%CI=[-0.23%,12.20%]
VERY RECENT (2022-2023)      bets= 130 win=  87.69% ROI=   10.61% P/L=     $689.84 95%CI=[2.79%,17.40%]
EARLY HALF (<= 2015)         bets= 311 win=  81.99% ROI=    2.45% P/L=     $380.40 95%CI=[-3.08%,7.80%]
LATE HALF (> 2015)           bets= 438 win=  83.56% ROI=    6.99% P/L=   $1,529.92 95%CI=[2.37%,11.44%]

YEAR BY YEAR
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2007     bets=   7 win= 100.00% ROI=   27.09% P/L=      $94.81 vs70pool=   20.65%
2008     bets=  17 win=  88.24% ROI=    9.08% P/L=      $77.21 vs70pool=   13.45%
2009     bets=  20 win=  70.00% ROI=  -12.92% P/L=    $-129.22 vs70pool=   -6.04%
2010     bets=  21 win=  71.43% ROI=  -10.81% P/L=    $-113.45 vs70pool=  -13.05%
2011     bets=  40 win=  82.50% ROI=    6.35% P/L=     $126.96 vs70pool=    5.22%
2012     bets=  31 win=  90.32% ROI=   13.53% P/L=     $209.67 vs70pool=   15.39%
2013     bets=  41 win=  87.80% ROI=    7.76% P/L=     $159.04 vs70pool=    2.83%
2014     bets=  64 win=  78.12% ROI=   -2.50% P/L=     $-80.14 vs70pool=   -0.55%
2015     bets=  70 win=  81.43% ROI=    1.01% P/L=      $35.52 vs70pool=    5.34%
2016     bets=  50 win=  80.00% ROI=    2.55% P/L=      $63.63 vs70pool=   -0.91%
2017     bets=  60 win=  86.67% ROI=   12.61% P/L=     $378.17 vs70pool=    6.32%
2018     bets=  53 win=  84.91% ROI=    9.70% P/L=     $256.99 vs70pool=    3.06%
2019     bets=  51 win=  82.35% ROI=    5.71% P/L=     $145.66 vs70pool=    1.10%
2020     bets=  49 win=  77.55% ROI=    0.21% P/L=       $5.12 vs70pool=   -2.18%
2021     bets=  45 win=  77.78% ROI=   -0.42% P/L=      $-9.48 vs70pool=    2.65%
2022     bets=  78 win=  83.33% ROI=    5.95% P/L=     $232.09 vs70pool=    2.24%
2023     bets=  52 win=  94.23% ROI=   17.61% P/L=     $457.75 vs70pool=   10.20%

ROLLING 3-YEAR WINDOWS
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2006-2008    bets=  24 ROI=   14.34% P/L=     $172.02
2007-2009    bets=  44 ROI=    1.95% P/L=      $42.80
2008-2010    bets=  58 ROI=   -5.71% P/L=    $-165.47
2009-2011    bets=  81 ROI=   -2.86% P/L=    $-115.71
2010-2012    bets=  92 ROI=    4.85% P/L=     $223.18
2011-2013    bets= 112 ROI=    8.85% P/L=     $495.67
2012-2014    bets= 136 ROI=    4.24% P/L=     $288.57
2013-2015    bets= 175 ROI=    1.31% P/L=     $114.42
2014-2016    bets= 184 ROI=    0.21% P/L=      $19.01
2015-2017    bets= 180 ROI=    5.30% P/L=     $477.33
2016-2018    bets= 163 ROI=    8.57% P/L=     $698.79
2017-2019    bets= 164 ROI=    9.52% P/L=     $780.82
2018-2020    bets= 153 ROI=    5.33% P/L=     $407.76
2019-2021    bets= 145 ROI=    1.95% P/L=     $141.29
2020-2022    bets= 172 ROI=    2.65% P/L=     $227.72
2021-2023    bets= 175 ROI=    7.78% P/L=     $680.35

BY ODDS SOURCE
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BestFightOdds-derived          bets= 283 win=  83.39% ROI=    3.86% P/L=     $545.82
betmma.tips                    bets= 466 win=  82.62% ROI=    5.86% P/L=   $1,364.50

AGE-GAP THRESHOLD STABILITY
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younger >=  0y | ALL: bets=1185 ROI=    4.60% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 315 ROI=    4.26%
younger >=  1y | ALL: bets=1045 ROI=    3.82% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 288 ROI=    3.72%
younger >=  2y | ALL: bets= 901 ROI=    4.30% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 260 ROI=    3.78%
younger >=  3y | ALL: bets= 749 ROI=    5.10% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 224 ROI=    6.12%
younger >=  4y | ALL: bets= 625 ROI=    5.16% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 193 ROI=    6.26%
younger >=  5y | ALL: bets= 508 ROI=    4.45% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets= 164 ROI=    4.74%
younger >=  7y | ALL: bets= 288 ROI=    4.72% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets=  95 ROI=    3.11%
younger >= 10y | ALL: bets= 110 ROI=    4.33% | RECENT 2020-2023: bets=  36 ROI=    8.98%

DECISION CHECK
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Overall ROI: 5.10% on 749 bets.
Recent-period ROI (2020-2023): 6.12% on 224 bets.

PASS: the exact >=3-year-younger rule remained positive in the recent period.

The bootstrap 95% ROI interval is included to show uncertainty.
If that interval crosses 0%, profitability is not statistically secure even if
the point-estimate ROI is positive.

Historical archival odds may not be exact closing/best sportsbook prices.
