UFC AGE MODEL — HISTORICAL BETTING BACKTEST
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PRIMARY RESULT: leakage-safe yearly walk-forward simulation.
Every historical year's predictions were made by a fresh copy of the
same age + division + sex model family trained ONLY on fights before
January 1 of that year. Historical betting odds are never model inputs.

Walk-forward fights with usable historical odds: 5,845
Period: 2007-06-16 through 2023-09-16
Age model accuracy: 56.82%
Age model AUC: 0.579
Age model log loss: 0.6859
Market no-vig log loss: 0.6125
Age model Brier: 0.2464
Market no-vig Brier: 0.2123

FIXED EDGE/EV STRATEGIES (1 unit staked per qualifying fight)
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edge >= 0.0pp          bets=5845 win=  35.18% ROI=   -4.45% profit=-259.94u maxDD=-272.11u
edge >= 2.5pp          bets=5333 win=  33.85% ROI=   -4.66% profit=-248.28u maxDD=-258.30u
edge >= 5.0pp          bets=4858 win=  32.11% ROI=   -6.00% profit=-291.31u maxDD=-297.57u
edge >= 7.5pp          bets=4337 win=  30.57% ROI=   -6.80% profit=-294.72u maxDD=-298.61u
edge >= 10.0pp         bets=3791 win=  28.46% ROI=   -8.87% profit=-336.10u maxDD=-340.05u
edge >= 12.5pp         bets=3266 win=  26.61% ROI=  -10.65% profit=-347.73u maxDD=-353.35u
edge >= 15.0pp         bets=2690 win=  24.39% ROI=  -12.86% profit=-345.86u maxDD=-347.66u
model EV >= 0%         bets=5568 win=  34.41% ROI=   -4.52% profit=-251.62u maxDD=-260.75u
model EV >= 5%         bets=5148 win=  33.29% ROI=   -4.67% profit=-240.22u maxDD=-245.53u
model EV >= 10%        bets=4745 win=  31.65% ROI=   -6.19% profit=-293.70u maxDD=-300.49u
model EV >= 15%        bets=4348 win=  30.20% ROI=   -7.40% profit=-321.69u maxDD=-323.64u
model EV >= 20%        bets=3973 win=  29.12% ROI=   -7.83% profit=-311.25u maxDD=-314.20u

BASELINES
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Always bet historical market favorite: bets=5845, win=65.95%, ROI=-2.05%, profit=-119.65u
Always bet younger fighter:             bets=5845, win=56.82%, ROI=2.96%, profit=+173.02u

ODDS SOURCES USED
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betmma.tips: 3,387 matched fights
BestFightOdds-derived: 2,458 matched fights

IMPORTANT
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The separate 'current-model retrospective' CSV is NOT a valid backtest,
because today's fitted model has already seen many of those historical
fight outcomes during training. It is included only as a descriptive
comparison. Use the WALK-FORWARD results above for betting conclusions.

The historical lines are public archival moneylines from betmma.tips and
a BestFightOdds-derived public dataset. They are not guaranteed to be
the exact closing line or the best price available at every sportsbook.

A positive historical ROI does not prove future profitability.
