UFC AGE MODEL V2 — HISTORICAL RAW AGE EVIDENCE
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Source fight rows:              8,580
Fights with both DOBs:          8,457
Age coverage:                   98.57%
Fights in younger/older model:  8,453
Younger fighter wins:           4,818
Younger fighter win rate:       57.00%
95% Wilson CI:                  55.94% – 58.05%
Missing unique fighter DOBs:    102
Wikipedia DOBs added:           0

AGE GAP SUMMARY
age_gap_bucket  fights  younger_wins  younger_win_pct  ci95_low_pct  ci95_high_pct
            <1    1286           673            52.33         49.60          55.05
           1-2    1212           633            52.23         49.41          55.03
           2-3    1219           668            54.80         51.99          57.57
           3-4     957           555            57.99         54.84          61.08
           4-5     874           474            54.23         50.92          57.51
           5-6     750           442            58.93         55.38          62.40
           6-7     605           360            59.50         55.54          63.34
           7-8     436           267            61.24         56.59          65.69
          8-10     623           406            65.17         61.34          68.81
           10+     491           340            69.25         65.03          73.17

Notes:
- Only completed W/L fights are included in the win-rate model.
- Draws, no contests, and incomplete bouts are excluded.
- Age is exact fight-night age in days / 365.2425.
- Raw age win rates are descriptive, not yet a betting model.
- Next step: out-of-sample modeling and sportsbook/no-vig comparison.